CareTrust REIT Stock Market Outlook

Stocks . USA . 
Stock . CareTrust REIT
CTRE Stock  USD 41.60  2.10  5.32%   
This sentiment measure is descriptive rather than personalized advice and should be used with other evidence before acting on it. About 63% of recent sentiment around CareTrust REIT has been slightly more constructive than defensive over the recent sample. Taken on its own, that leaves the current sentiment reading for CareTrust REIT slightly above neutral at this time.
Investor Comfort Level
PanicConfidence
63 · Interested

Maximum Pain Price Across 2026-07-17 Option Contracts

For the 2026-07-17 expiration, CareTrust REIT max pain is calculated at 40.00, reflecting the strike of greatest aggregate open interest exposure. With call open interest at 271 contracts at the 45.00 strike and put open interest at 45.0 contracts at the 35.00 strike, CareTrust REIT call-dominant positioning read alongside implied volatility and volume trends sharpens the near-term outlook.

Elasticity to Hype and News Sentiment

CareTrust REIT news sentiment reading of 73% (positive) tracks how media and analyst commentary are framing the investment case. Cross-checking that reading with earnings momentum and price action helps confirm whether the narrative is running ahead of or behind the business.
Given a 90-day horizon, with a moderate risk tolerance, the model output for CareTrust REIT is 'Strong Hold'. Our automated recommendation for CareTrust REIT is built from quantitative evidence and fundamental indicators. The analysis combines quantitative signals with investor-specific risk parameters. The recommendation evaluates return potential against downside risk within defined investment parameters. Complementing automated signals with independent research strengthens the broad analytical foundation.
  

Run CareTrust REIT Outlook Model

Our CareTrust REIT outlook engine provides a data-driven supplement to the analyst consensus on CareTrust REIT. Macroaxis has no vested interest in CareTrust REIT or any other instrument analyzed here. Multiple quantitative inputs drive the CareTrust REIT's signal across different market conditions. Combining algorithmic signals with independent analysis supports more informed decisions.

How This Model Works

The recommendation output for CareTrust REIT is a model-based view that converts the selected horizon and risk profile into a standardized reading of the current evidence.

  • Inputs - valuation signals, price behavior, volatility, liquidity, sentiment, and analyst coverage when available
  • Current setup - Three Months with a risk setting described as I am an average risk taker
  • Limits - the model does not account for taxes, outside holdings, concentration constraints, or investor-specific mandates

Use the output as structured decision support and pair it with your own research, portfolio context, and any professional advice you rely on.

Time Horizon

Risk Tolerance

Update Outlook
SellBuy
Strong Hold

Market Performance

ContainedDetails

Volatility

Very LowDetails

Current Valuation

Below Model EstimateDetails

Odds Of Distress

MinimalDetails

Economic Sensitivity

Slowly supersedes the marketDetails

Investor Sentiment

InterestedDetails

Analyst Consensus

Strong BuyDetails

Financial Strenth (F Score)

StrongDetails

Financial Leverage

Not RatedDetails

Reporting Quality (M-Score)

Possible ManipulatorDetails
CareTrust REIT's current outlook reflects mixed signals, where recent market performance has undercut momentum, while contained volatility and intact fundamental quality provide partial offset. The model's 'Strong Hold' signal reflects mixed signals where neither bullish nor bearish factors dominate. A Strong Hold typically corresponds to a setup where valuation and volatility metrics limit downside pressure, but the absence of clear catalysts constrains upside visibility. Over the selected time horizon, CareTrust REIT shows Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1179, Jensen Alpha of 0.2219, and Total Risk Alpha of 0.226, which frame a constrained risk-reward profile.
The quantitative analytical reading for CareTrust REIT blends historical performance patterns with current market conditions and the analyst and expert consensus to frame the risk-reward profile. For additional context on this mid-cap stock in the Real Estate sector, review the full set of CareTrust REIT reported fundamentals, including the relationship between the ebitda ttm and cash flow from operations ttm. CareTrust REIT reports a price to earnings ttm of 22.42 X. Its market performance and financial distress probability provide additional context.

Recent Events and Market Context

The events below reflect recent headlines associated with CareTrust REIT. Not all items directly affect the outlook โ€” they are included to show the broader information environment that can shape sentiment and trading behavior.

Returns Distribution Density

Plotting CareTrust REIT's daily returns in a distribution reveals the day-to-day behavior of CareTrust REIT. It shows how returns are grouped around the average and how often large swings occur. Value At Risk and Upside Potential quantify both the risk and the reward. Value At Risk shows the worst-case boundary and Upside Potential shows the best-case boundary.
Mean Return
0.23
Value At Risk
-2.37
Potential Upside
3.20
Standard Deviation
1.98
   Return Density   
       Distribution  
Risk management for CareTrust REIT depends on quantifying the frequency and magnitude of extreme moves. The distribution chart below makes that clear for CareTrust REIT. Portfolio managers weigh the trade-offs across risk-return profiles. Return distribution analysis highlights the frequency and magnitude of extreme price moves in CareTrust REIT.

Top Institutional Investors

At mid-cap scale, institutional coverage and secondary-market liquidity are typically well established. At CareTrust REIT's scale, fund flows and index rebalancing drive most of the daily volume. The business currently sits in the Real Estate sector and the Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) industry. Volume spikes around index rebalance dates warrant attention given the high institutional share.
Shares
Norges Bank2025-12-31
3.2 M
Nuveen, Llc2025-12-31
2.9 M
Northern Trust Corp2025-12-31
2.7 M
Citadel Advisors Llc2025-12-31
2.6 M
Bank Of New York Mellon Corp2025-12-31
2.4 M
Morgan Stanley - Brokerage Accounts2025-12-31
2.4 M
Daiwa Securities Group Inc2025-12-31
2.3 M
Alyeska Investment Group, L.p.2025-12-31
2 M
Copeland Capital Management, Llc2025-12-31
1.8 M
Blackrock Inc2025-12-31
41.7 M
Vanguard Group Inc2025-12-31
33.2 M
For a mid-cap like CareTrust REIT (9.83 billion), benchmark pressure and redemption cycles can limit how institutional weight turns into price support. Whether CareTrust REIT institutional base is index-driven or conviction-based changes how to read it - at this size active managers often hold meaningful weight.

Cash Flow Accounts

20222023202420252026 (projected)
Issuance Of Capital Stock47.2M634.4M1.6B1.1B582.2M
Backtest CareTrust REIT

Key Drivers of Volatility and Market Exposure

Market risk ties CareTrust REIT to macro cycles, whereas company or sector-specific developments represent independent drivers. Volatility metrics help measure this balance. CareTrust REIT reported a Downside Deviation of 2.13, a Mean Deviation of 1.36, and an Option Implied Volatility of 0.38.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones		0.22
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.16
σ
Overall volatility		1.89
Ir
Information ratio 0.11
CareTrust REIT volatility readings capture the magnitude of recent trading swings. Beta of 0.158 places CareTrust REIT in the lower-sensitivity group relative to the benchmark. Implied volatility at 38.0% provides a forward-looking estimate of expected price movement based on current option pricing. Risk-adjusted performance as measured by a 0.0845 Sharpe ratio is within a typical range for this asset class.

Fundamentals Vs Peers

CareTrust REIT is measured here against stocks with similar revenue scale, margin profile, and capital structure. The comparison below reveals whether CareTrust REIT generates superior or inferior returns relative to similar stocks. Divergence between CareTrust REIT's valuation multiples and its peer group flags either mispricing or a structural difference in quality. Direct comparison with similar stocks converts CareTrust REIT's standalone financial data into an actionable relative signal.
    
 Better Than Average     
    
 Worse Than Average Compare CareTrust REIT to competition
FundamentalsCareTrust REITPeer Average
Return On Equity TTM0.0917-0.31
Return On Asset TTM0.0468-0.14
Profit Margin TTM0.67-1.27
Operating Margin TTM0.58-5.51
Current Valuation9.44 B16.62 billion
Shares Outstanding236.24 M571.82 million
Shares Owned By Insiders0.82 %10.09 %
Shares Owned By Institutions99.18 %39.21 %
Number Of Shares Shorted3.9 M4.71 million
Price To Earnings TTM22.42 X28.72 X
Price To Book TTM2.19 X9.51 X
Price To Sales TTM20.63 X11.42 X
Revenue TTM476.59 M9.43 billion
Gross Profit TTM466.81 M27.38 billion
EBITDA TTM462.08 M3.9 billion
Net Income TTM320.29 M570.98 million
Cash And Equivalents TTM30.27 M2.7 billion
Cash Per Share TTM0.31 X5.01 X
Total Debt TTM894.22 M5.32 billion
Debt To Equity TTM0.95 %48.70 %
Current Ratio TTM3.70 X2.16 X
Book Value Per Share TTM18.12 X1,931
Cash Flow From Operations TTM394.03 M971.22 million
Short Ratio TTM3.83 X4.00 X
Earnings Per Share1.58 X3.12 X
Price To Earnings To Growth1.26 X4.89 X
Target Price43.67N/A
Number Of Employees4318,840
Trailing Beta0.79-0.15
Market Capitalization TTM9.83 B19.03 billion
Total Asset TTM5.15 B29.47 billion
Retained Earnings TTM-491.8 M9.33 billion
Working Capital TTM105.36 M1.48 billion
Note: Insider Trading [view details]

Market Momentum

CareTrust REIT momentum reading - RSI 60 (mildly bullish), beta 0.158 (low-beta) - helps distinguish trend continuation from fading conviction. That moderate sensitivity suggests strength patterns are relatively stable across market regimes.
Accumulation Distribution0.0353
Daily Balance Of Power1.428571
Rate Of Daily Change1.05
Day Median Price40.88
Day Typical Price41.12
Market Facilitation Index1.47
Price Action Indicator1.78
Period Momentum Indicator2.1
Relative Strength Index60.27

Current Target Price Consensus

CareTrust REIT's target price is built from the average of all analyst forecasts we collect. Analyst performance can only be meaningfully measured through historical attribution analysis. The CareTrust REIT's target price data below warrants integration with other forecasting methods for a complete picture. A multi-method strategy that includes technical analysis and sentiment evaluation strengthens CareTrust REIT's assessment.
   9  Strong Buy
The standard cadence for CareTrust REIT analyst updates is quarterly. Alongside each rating, analysts provide a target price reflecting their intrinsic value estimate for the stock. The analytical process involves reviewing CareTrust REIT's financial filings and listening to conference calls. The combination of financial analysis and management access supports well-informed CareTrust REIT recommendations.
Exposure   Valuation

CareTrust REIT Target Price Projection

The market currently values CareTrust REIT at 41.60, while analysts project a target of 43.67. The market price shows where CareTrust REIT trades today; the target shows where analysts expect the stock to go. The greater the spread between these prices, the stronger the incentive for investors to act. The spread between CareTrust REIT's current price and target helps assess potential opportunity.

Current Price

CareTrust REIT Market Quote on 10th of May 2026

Low Price40.14Odds
High Price41.61Odds

41.6

Target Price

Analyst Consensus On CareTrust REIT Target Price

Low Estimate39.74Odds
High Estimate48.47Odds

43.67

Historical Lowest Forecast  39.74 Target Price  43.67 Highest Forecast  48.47
Price target estimates for CareTrust REIT are generally included in analyst research reports. Even though the financial press often picks up these targets promptly, a delay may still exist. CareTrust REIT's price target data shown here is sourced from published analyst reports and updated periodically. Investors are encouraged to verify CareTrust REIT's latest analyst targets through additional sources.

CareTrust REIT Analyst Ratings

CareTrust REIT draws a Strong Buy consensus from the 9 analysts tracking it. Sentiment is mostly bullish, with 7 rate it favorably. Across the board, mostly bullish sentiment dominates CareTrust REIT's analyst landscape. The chart below tracks how this breakdown has changed.

Analyst Consensus Breakdown

Average Consensus Estimates

Recommendation Framework, Assumptions & Editorial Oversight

The model output for CareTrust REIT reflects the current horizon and risk settings, refreshes as underlying data changes, and is intended to organize evidence rather than replace investor judgment. Current model inputs for CareTrust REIT include P/E of 22.42, ROE of 9.17%. External analyst coverage is currently summarized as Strong Buy across 9 analysts, but it is treated here as a secondary reference input rather than a stand-alone recommendation. Published target-price assumptions may also be reviewed when available, but they can change quickly as analyst models are revised.

CareTrust REIT metrics draw on periodic company reporting and market reference feeds, standardized for cross-period comparison. The model combines valuation, price behavior, volatility, and sentiment into a standardized quantitative view.

Editorial Review & Methodology Oversight

Gabriel Shpitalnik
Role: Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board
Finance background: Gabriel is a young entrepreneur and writes predominantly on the business, technology, and finance sector. He likes to analyze different equity instruments across a wide range of industries focusing primarily on consumer products and evolving technologies.
Oversight scope: Reviews recommendation-framework framing, source assumptions, and disclosure language.
Last reviewed on April 25th, 2026

Tools
Analysis
Directory
Company
2026 Macroaxis LLC Made with in San Francisco
Privacy Terms Widgets Feedback
Macroaxis is not a registered investment advisor or broker/dealer. All investments, including stocks, funds, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies, are speculative and involve substantial risk of loss. We encourage our investors to invest carefully. Much of our information is derived directly from data published by companies or submitted to governmental agencies which we believe are reliable, but are without our independent verification. Therefore, we cannot assure you that the information is accurate or complete. We do not in any way warrant or guarantee the success of any action you take in reliance on our statements or recommendations. Also, note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. All investments carry risk, and all investment decisions of an individual remain the responsibility of that individual. There is no guarantee that systems, indicators, or signals will result in profits or that they will not result in losses. All investors are advised to fully understand all risks associated with any investing they choose to do. Hypothetical or simulated performance is not indicative of future results. We make no representations or warranties that any investor will, or is likely to, achieve profits similar to those shown because hypothetical or simulated performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. For more information please visit our terms and conditions page.