Erasca Inc Stock Market Outlook
| ERAS Stock | USD 10.12 -0.28 -2.69% |
Erasca's sentiment score summarizes the balance between positive and negative signals in recent news and social media and is used here as a behavioral input rather than as a trading instruction. Around 66% of recent sentiment around Erasca has leaned defensive over the recent sample. Taken on its own, that leaves the current sentiment reading for Erasca Inc below neutral right now.
Investor Comfort Level
PanicConfidence
34 · Alarmed
Elasticity to Hype and News Sentiment
At 55%, Erasca Inc news tone is mixed, providing a perception layer that can precede fundamental repricing. Shifts in news tone at this level often precede a change in trading character that warrants attention.
Given a 90-day horizon, with an above-average risk tolerance, the model output for Erasca Inc is 'Strong Sell'. The Erasca buy-or-sell recommendation is derived from the selected investment horizon and risk tolerance parameters for Erasca.
Erasca |
Run Erasca Outlook Model
The Erasca model signal complements the current analyst consensus on Erasca Inc. Macroaxis holds no financial interest in Erasca Inc or in any other asset this module covers.
How This Model Works
The recommendation output for Erasca is a model-based view that converts the selected horizon and risk profile into a standardized reading of the current evidence.
- Inputs - valuation signals, price behavior, volatility, liquidity, sentiment, and analyst coverage when available
- Current setup - Three Months with a risk setting described as I am an educated risk taker
- Limits - the model does not account for taxes, outside holdings, concentration constraints, or investor-specific mandates
Use the output as structured decision support and pair it with your own research, portfolio context, and any professional advice you rely on.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
Strong Sell
Market Performance | Soft | Details | |
Volatility | Elevated | Details | |
Current Valuation | Above Model Estimate | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Below Average | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Responds to the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Alarmed | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Strong Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Poor | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
Erasca's current outlook reflects a cautious setup, where recent market performance has undercut momentum. The model's 'Strong Sell' signal reflects persistent headwinds that outweigh the offsetting factors in the model. For the selected horizon, Erasca yields Mean Deviation of 4.64, Semi Deviation of 9.09, and Standard Deviation of 8.0, which weigh on the current risk-reward outlook.The model output for Erasca integrates risk-adjusted performance, valuation signals, and the current expert consensus into a single quantitative reading. For additional context on this mid-cap stock in the Health Care sector, review the full set of Erasca reported fundamentals, including the relationship between the cash and equivalents ttm and target price. Erasca Inc has a price to book ttm of 9.68 X. Its market performance and bankruptcy risk for the current cycle warrant close attention.
Recent Events and Market Context
The events below reflect recent headlines associated with Erasca. Not all items directly affect the outlook — they are included to show the broader information environment that can shape sentiment and trading behavior.
Returns Distribution Density
This chart shows how Erasca's daily returns have been spread out over time. It gives a quick sense of what outcomes are most likely for Erasca.
| Mean Return | 0.24 | Value At Risk | -7.03 | Potential Upside | 9.44 | Standard Deviation | 8.00 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Good risk management means knowing how likely big price swings are. The return distribution chart shows this clearly for Erasca.
Top Institutional Investors
Revenue scale should be reviewed against peers and reporting history. How Erasca Inc's institutional base reacts to earnings changes can move the stock in the short term. Shares outstanding are near 310.97 million. The insider stake is large enough to signal management alignment, which can steady the price during sell-offs.
| Shares | State Street Corp | 2025-12-31 | 6.2 M | 5am Venture Management, Llc | 2025-12-31 | 5.4 M | Geode Capital Management, Llc | 2025-12-31 | 4.9 M | Affinity Asset Advisors, Llc | 2025-12-31 | 3.9 M | Spruce Street Capital Lp | 2025-12-31 | 3.9 M | The Goldman Sachs Group Inc | 2025-12-31 | 3.3 M | Millennium Management Llc | 2025-12-31 | 2.2 M | Soleus Capital Management, L.p. | 2025-12-31 | 2.2 M | Woodline Partners Lp | 2025-12-31 | 1.9 M | Frazier Life Sciences Management, L.p. | 2025-12-31 | 22.7 M | T. Rowe Price Investment Management,inc. | 2025-12-31 | 20.9 M |
Cash Flow Accounts
| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | ||
| Change To Operating Activities | 3.7M | 6.4M | 15.1M | 17.4M | 18.2M | |
| Issuance Of Capital Stock | 137.0M | 436.4M | 95.3M | 0.0 | 239.1M | |
| Change To Netincome | 65.1M | 19.2M | 122.1M | 140.4M | 147.4M | |
| Change To Liabilities | -380K | 13.2M | 676K | 777.4K | 738.5K | |
| Sale Purchase Of Stock | 820K | 790K | 800K | 724K | 672.2K |
Key Drivers of Volatility and Market Exposure
Erasca is exposed to both systematic and unsystematic risk. Systematic risk reflects broader stock market movements, while company or sector-specific developments represent nonmarket drivers. Diversification may reduce specific risk, but market exposure remains. Beta and standard deviation help quantify volatility. For Erasca Inc, recent data highlights a Downside Deviation of 9.38, a Mean Deviation of 4.64, and a Semi Deviation of 9.09.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.24 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.42 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 8.14 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
Fundamentals Vs Peers
Erasca's fundamentals tested against peer averages expose where the stock leads, lags, or diverges from its group. Revenue growth, margin structure, and return on capital at Erasca are tested against the same metrics at comparable stocks.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Erasca to competition |
| Fundamentals | Erasca | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity TTM | -0.33 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset TTM | -0.18 | -0.14 |
| Current Valuation | 2.92 B | 16.62 billion |
| Shares Outstanding | 310.97 M | 571.82 million |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 10.65 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 77.66 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 33.97 M | 4.71 million |
| Price To Book TTM | 9.68 X | 9.51 X |
| EBITDA TTM | -128.3 M | 3.9 billion |
| Net Income TTM | -124.55 M | 570.98 million |
| Cash And Equivalents TTM | 371.48 M | 2.7 billion |
| Cash Per Share TTM | 3.04 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt TTM | 47.14 M | 5.32 billion |
| Debt To Equity TTM | 0.07 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio TTM | 17.09 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share TTM | 1.14 X | 1,931 |
| Cash Flow From Operations TTM | -95.45 M | 971.22 million |
| Short Ratio TTM | 5.66 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | -0.44 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 0.37 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 20.7 | N/A |
| Number Of Employees | 103 | 18,840 |
| Trailing Beta | 0.68 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization TTM | 3.15 B | 19.03 billion |
| Total Asset TTM | 396.15 M | 29.47 billion |
| Retained Earnings TTM | -892.21 M | 9.33 billion |
| Working Capital TTM | 257.73 M | 1.48 billion |
| Net Asset | 396.15 M | N/A |
Note: Acquisition by Chacko David M. of 17793 shares of Erasca at 1.1943 subject to Rule 16 b-3 [view details]
Market Momentum
With RSI at 39 and beta at 1.4154, Erasca Inc strength signals show whether demand and trading pressure are supporting or weakening the current setup. Timing discipline improves when these strength signals are cross-checked with earnings momentum and volume confirmation.
Recommendation Framework, Assumptions & Editorial Oversight
The model output for Erasca reflects the current horizon and risk settings, refreshes as underlying data changes, and is intended to organize evidence rather than replace investor judgment. Current model inputs for Erasca include ROE of -33.27%, market cap of 3.15 billion. External analyst coverage is currently summarized as Strong Buy across 8 analysts, but it is treated here as a secondary reference input rather than a stand-alone recommendation. Published target-price assumptions may also be reviewed when available, but they can change quickly as analyst models are revised. 
Erasca Inc data is compiled from periodic company reporting and market reference feeds and standardized for comparability. The model combines valuation, price behavior, volatility, and sentiment into a standardized quantitative view.
Editorial Review & Methodology Oversight
Role: Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board
Finance background: Ellen covers public companies in North America, focusing primarily on valuation and volatility. Six years of experience in predictive investment analytics and risk management.
Oversight scope: Reviews recommendation-framework framing, source assumptions, and disclosure language.