Golub Capital Bdc Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| GBDC Stock | USD 15.30 0.15 0.99% |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your way above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Golub Capital BDC is 'Hold'. Macroaxis provides Golub Capital buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding GBDC positions.
Check out Golub Capital Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. In addition, we conduct extensive research on individual companies such as Golub and provide practical buy, sell, or hold advice based on investors' investing horizon and their risk tolerance towards Golub Capital BDC. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in unemployment.
Golub |
Execute Golub Capital Buy or Sell Advice
The Golub recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Golub Capital BDC. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Golub Capital BDC or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Golub Capital's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Hold
Market Performance | OK | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Stale | Details | |
Current Valuation | Fairly Valued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | About Average | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Slowly supersedes the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Interested | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Poor | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
Golub Capital Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 714.79 M. Net Loss for the year was (3.65 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 603.09 M. | |
| Golub Capital BDC has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| On 1st of October 2024 Golub Capital paid $ 0.3666 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Golub Capital BDC Completes 2.2 Billion Debt Securitization and Increases Credit Facility with JPMorgan Chase |
Golub Capital Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Golub Capital's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Golub Capital's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Golub Capital daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Golub Capital BDC price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Golub Capital returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Golub Capital.
| Mean Return | 0.07 | Value At Risk | -1.26 | Potential Upside | 1.42 | Standard Deviation | 0.82 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Golub Capital historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Golub Stock Institutional Investors
| Shares | Bank Of America Corp | 2024-06-30 | 2.5 M | Jpmorgan Chase & Co | 2024-06-30 | 2.4 M | Sage Mountain Advisors Llc | 2024-09-30 | 1.8 M | Hpm Partners Llc | 2024-06-30 | 1.7 M | Two Sigma Investments Llc | 2024-09-30 | 1.5 M | Legal & General Group Plc | 2024-06-30 | 1.4 M | Arnhold Llc | 2024-09-30 | 1.4 M | Partners Group Holding Ag Junk | 2024-06-30 | 1.3 M | Lsv Asset Management | 2024-09-30 | 1.2 M | Strs Ohio | 2024-09-30 | 14.5 M | Ci Private Wealth Llc | 2024-06-30 | 6.9 M |
Golub Capital Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Free Cash Flow | 187.7M | (306.0M) | (416.5M) | 195.4M | 343.9M | 361.1M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 133.2M | (663.6M) | (601.3M) | (25.6M) | 331.5M | 348.0M | |
| Net Income | 54.9M | 340.3M | 153.4M | 258.6M | (3.6M) | (3.5M) | |
| Change In Cash | 100.2M | 59.9M | (63.8M) | (40.3M) | 219.3M | 230.3M | |
| Depreciation | 27.0M | 19.6M | (1.7M) | (5.5M) | (1.2M) | (1.2M) | |
| Dividends Paid | 136.4M | 139.1M | 155.2M | 191.5M | 21.3M | 20.2M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 184.4M | 244.3M | 180.6M | 140.2M | 359.6M | 377.5M | |
| Net Borrowings | (201.8M) | 542.8M | 551.5M | 25.5M | 29.3M | 27.8M | |
| Change To Netincome | 156.7M | (654.2M) | (610.3M) | (38.5M) | (34.6M) | (36.3M) | |
| Change To Inventory | 262K | 836K | 2.4M | 5.1M | 5.8M | 6.1M |
Golub Capital Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Golub Capital or Capital Markets sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Golub Capital's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Golub stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.49 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.82 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
Golub Capital Volatility Alert
Golub Capital BDC has low volatility with Treynor Ratio of 0.12, Maximum Drawdown of 4.6 and kurtosis of 0.91. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Golub Capital's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Golub Capital's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Golub Capital Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Golub Capital's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Golub Capital's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Golub Capital and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Golub Capital or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Golub Capital's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Golub Capital by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Golub Capital to competition |
| Fundamentals | Golub Capital | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.0853 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0471 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.42 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.89 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 8.2 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 264.28 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 1.75 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 39.24 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 2.41 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 21.96 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 1.01 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 6.08 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 714.79 M | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 603.09 M | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 292.77 M | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | (3.65 M) | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 85.2 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 0.50 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 4.69 B | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 1.21 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 3.33 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 15.32 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 343.91 M | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 1.96 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 1.36 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 1.51 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 16.25 | |
| Beta | 0.56 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 4.04 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 8.71 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | (152.99 M) | 9.33 B |
| Annual Yield | 0.10 % | |
| Five Year Return | 7.80 % |
Note: Disposition of 1250000 shares by David Golub of Golub Capital at 15.72 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Golub Capital Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Golub . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
About Golub Capital Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Golub Capital BDC? Buying financial instruments such as Golub Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having Golub Capital in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
Run Consumption Thematic Idea Now
Consumption
Companies that deliver final goods such as cars or clothing for consumption by consumers. The Consumption theme has 19 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Consumption Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
| View All Next | Launch |
Check out Golub Capital Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
Is Asset Management & Custody Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Golub Capital. If investors know Golub will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Golub Capital listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.89) | Earnings Share 1.36 | Revenue Per Share 3.747 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.107 | Return On Assets 0.0471 |
The market value of Golub Capital BDC is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Golub that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Golub Capital's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Golub Capital's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Golub Capital's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Golub Capital's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Golub Capital's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Golub Capital is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Golub Capital's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.