Karat Packaging Stock Market Outlook
| KRT Stock | USD 28.07 -2.34 -7.69% |
This sentiment measure is descriptive rather than personalized advice and should be used with other evidence before acting on it. About 56% of recent sentiment around Karat Packaging has been mildly defensive over the recent sample. Taken on its own, that leaves the current sentiment reading for Karat Packaging close to neutral right now.
Investor Comfort Level
PanicConfidence
44 · Impartial
Elasticity to Hype and News Sentiment
Karat Packaging news coverage registers positive at 71%, a data point that gauges whether public narrative is leading or lagging the business reality. Cross-checking that reading with earnings momentum and price action helps confirm whether the narrative is running ahead of or behind the business.
Over a 90-day investment horizon, with a moderate risk tolerance, the model output for Karat Packaging is 'Strong Buy'. Our automated recommendation for Karat Packaging is built from quantitative evidence and fundamental indicators. The analysis combines quantitative signals with investor-specific risk parameters. The recommendation evaluates return potential against downside risk within defined investment parameters. Complementing automated signals with independent research strengthens the broad analytical foundation.
Karat Packaging |
Run Karat Packaging Outlook Model
Our Karat Packaging outlook engine provides a data-driven supplement to the analyst consensus on Karat Packaging. Macroaxis has no vested interest in Karat Packaging or any other instrument analyzed here. Multiple quantitative inputs drive the Karat Packaging's signal across different market conditions. Combining algorithmic signals with independent analysis supports more informed decisions.
How This Model Works
The recommendation output for Karat Packaging is a model-based view that converts the selected horizon and risk profile into a standardized reading of the current evidence.
- Inputs - valuation signals, price behavior, volatility, liquidity, sentiment, and analyst coverage when available
- Current setup - Three Months with a risk setting described as I am an average risk taker
- Limits - the model does not account for taxes, outside holdings, concentration constraints, or investor-specific mandates
Use the output as structured decision support and pair it with your own research, portfolio context, and any professional advice you rely on.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
Strong Buy
Market Performance | Mild | Details | |
Volatility | Very Low | Details | |
Current Valuation | Below Model Estimate | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Low | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Almost mirrors the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Alarmed | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Healthy | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
Karat Packaging's current outlook reflects mixed signals, where recent market performance has undercut momentum, while contained volatility and intact fundamental quality provide partial offset. The model's 'Strong Buy' signal reflects this balance across quantitative inputs rather than a directional bias. For the selected horizon, Karat Packaging yields Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.064, Jensen Alpha of 0.1808, and Total Risk Alpha of 0.1858, which collectively support the constructive outlook.The quantitative analytical reading for Karat Packaging blends historical performance patterns with current market conditions and the analyst and expert consensus to frame the risk-reward profile. For additional context on this small-cap stock in the Consumer Cyclical sector, review the full set of Karat Packaging reported fundamentals, including debt to equity ttm, and the relationship between the gross profit ttm and target price. Karat Packaging reports a number of shares shorted of 159.92 K. Its market performance and financial distress probability provide additional context.
Recent Events and Market Context
The events below reflect recent headlines associated with Karat Packaging. Not all items directly affect the outlook — they are included to show the broader information environment that can shape sentiment and trading behavior.
Returns Distribution Density
Plotting Karat Packaging's daily returns in a distribution reveals the day-to-day behavior of Karat Packaging. It shows how returns are grouped around the average and how often large swings occur. Value At Risk and Upside Potential quantify both the risk and the reward. Value At Risk shows the worst-case boundary and Upside Potential shows the best-case boundary.
| Mean Return | 0.19 | Value At Risk | -2.82 | Potential Upside | 3.34 | Standard Deviation | 3.19 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Risk management for Karat Packaging depends on quantifying the frequency and magnitude of extreme moves. The distribution chart below makes that clear for Karat Packaging. Portfolio managers weigh the trade-offs across risk-return profiles. Return distribution analysis highlights the frequency and magnitude of extreme price moves in Karat Packaging.
Top Institutional Investors
Karat Packaging's institutional and insider mix shapes how the stock trades around earnings. Annual revenue is about 467.74 million. Shares outstanding are near 19.96 million. Whether the institutional base is growing or shrinking quarter over quarter matters more than the current snapshot.
| Shares | Millennium Management Llc | 2025-12-31 | 184.2 K | Boston Partners Global Investors, Inc | 2025-12-31 | 159.8 K | Bank Of New York Mellon Corp | 2025-12-31 | 158.3 K | State Street Corp | 2025-12-31 | 141.5 K | Two Sigma Investments Llc | 2025-12-31 | 131.7 K | Cwa Asset Management Group, Llc | 2026-03-31 | 122.4 K | T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. | 2025-12-31 | 112.8 K | Harel Insurance Invests & Fin Srvcs Ltd | 2025-12-31 | 107.7 K | Aqr Capital Management Llc | 2025-12-31 | 105.5 K | Blackrock Inc | 2025-12-31 | 570.3 K | Vanguard Group Inc | 2025-12-31 | 511.4 K |
Cash Flow Accounts
| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | ||
| Dividends Paid | 7.0M | 23.2M | 31.0M | 36.1M | 37.9M | |
| Sale Purchase Of Stock | 0.0 | -7.0M | -18K | -3.0M | -2.8M |
Key Drivers of Volatility and Market Exposure
Market risk ties Karat Packaging to macro cycles, whereas company or sector-specific developments represent independent drivers. Volatility metrics help measure this balance. For Karat Packaging, recent data highlights a Downside Deviation of 2.18, a Mean Deviation of 1.67, and a Semi Deviation of 2.00.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.18 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.98 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.23 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.06 |
Fundamentals Vs Peers
Karat Packaging is measured here against stocks with similar revenue scale, margin profile, and capital structure. The comparison below reveals whether Karat Packaging generates superior or inferior returns relative to similar stocks. Divergence between Karat Packaging's valuation multiples and its peer group flags either mispricing or a structural difference in quality. Direct comparison with similar stocks converts Karat Packaging's standalone financial data into an actionable relative signal.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Karat Packaging to competition |
Note: Disposition of 750000 shares by Alan Yu of Karat Packaging at 27.0 subject to Rule 16 b-3 [view details]
Market Momentum
Beta of 0.9798 moderately tracks broad market moves. Market-strength indicators for Karat Packaging help investors judge how the stock is reacting to changing momentum conditions. For Karat Packaging, these strength readings pair best with earnings momentum and volume confirmation.
Current Target Price Consensus
Karat Packaging's target price is built from the average of all analyst forecasts we collect. Analyst performance can only be meaningfully measured through historical attribution analysis. The Karat Packaging's target price data below warrants integration with other forecasting methods for a complete picture. A multi-method strategy that includes technical analysis and sentiment evaluation strengthens Karat Packaging's assessment.
| 3 | Buy |
The standard cadence for Karat Packaging analyst updates is quarterly. Alongside each rating, analysts provide a target price reflecting their intrinsic value estimate for the stock. The analytical process involves reviewing Karat Packaging's financial filings and listening to conference calls. The combination of financial analysis and management access supports well-informed Karat Packaging recommendations.
Exposure ValuationKarat Packaging Target Price Projection
The market currently values Karat Packaging at 28.07, while analysts project a target of 29.50. The market price shows where Karat Packaging trades today; the target shows where analysts expect the stock to go. The greater the spread between these prices, the stronger the incentive for investors to act. The spread between Karat Packaging's current price and target helps assess potential opportunity.Current Price
Karat Packaging Market Quote on 10th of May 2026
Target Price
Analyst Consensus On Karat Packaging Target Price
Karat Packaging Analyst Ratings
Karat Packaging draws a Buy consensus from the 3 analysts tracking it. Sentiment is leaning bullish, with 1 rates it favorably. Across the board, leaning bullish sentiment dominates Karat Packaging's analyst landscape. The chart below tracks how this breakdown has changed.Analyst Consensus Breakdown
Average Consensus Estimates
Recommendation Framework, Assumptions & Editorial Oversight
The model output for Karat Packaging reflects the current horizon and risk settings, refreshes as underlying data changes, and is intended to organize evidence rather than replace investor judgment. Current model inputs for Karat Packaging include P/E of 13.97, ROE of 20.48%. External analyst coverage is currently summarized as Buy across 3 analysts, but it is treated here as a secondary reference input rather than a stand-alone recommendation. Published target-price assumptions may also be reviewed when available, but they can change quickly as analyst models are revised. 
Karat Packaging metrics draw on periodic company reporting and market reference feeds, standardized for cross-period comparison. The model combines valuation, price behavior, volatility, and sentiment into a standardized quantitative view.
Editorial Review & Methodology Oversight
Role: Macroaxis Contributor
Finance background: Vlad covers stocks, funds, cryptocurrencies, and ETFs that are traded in North America, focusing primarily on fundamentals, valuation and market volatility. He has many years of experience in fintech, predictive investment analytics, and risk management.
Oversight scope: Reviews recommendation-framework framing, source assumptions, and disclosure language.