Smith Douglas Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| SDHC Stock | 19.29 1.80 10.29% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Smith Douglas Homes on the next trading day is expected to be 20.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61 and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.74. Smith Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Smith Douglas stock prices and determine the direction of Smith Douglas Homes's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Smith Douglas' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of Smith Douglas' share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.59) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.2182 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.9094 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.6817 | Wall Street Target Price 16.75 |
Using Smith Douglas hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Smith Douglas Homes from the perspective of Smith Douglas response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Smith Douglas Homes Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Smith Douglas' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Smith. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Smith can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Smith Douglas Homes. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Smith Douglas' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Smith Douglas.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Smith Douglas Homes on the next trading day is expected to be 20.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61 and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.74. Smith Douglas after-hype prediction price | USD 19.29 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Smith Douglas to cross-verify your projections. Smith Douglas Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Smith price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Smith using various technical indicators. When you analyze Smith charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Smith Douglas Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Smith Douglas' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2010-12-31 | Previous Quarter 20.1 M | Current Value 19.4 M | Quarterly Volatility 2.6 M |
Smith Douglas Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 11th of January 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Smith Douglas Homes on the next trading day is expected to be 20.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61, mean absolute percentage error of 0.56, and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.74.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Smith Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Smith Douglas' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Smith Douglas Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Smith Douglas | Smith Douglas Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Smith Douglas Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Smith Douglas' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Smith Douglas' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.07 and 24.24, respectively. We have considered Smith Douglas' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Smith Douglas stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Smith Douglas stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.3772 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6087 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.034 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 37.7402 |
Predictive Modules for Smith Douglas
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Smith Douglas Homes. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Smith Douglas
For every potential investor in Smith, whether a beginner or expert, Smith Douglas' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Smith Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Smith. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Smith Douglas' price trends.Smith Douglas Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Smith Douglas stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Smith Douglas could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Smith Douglas by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Smith Douglas Homes Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Smith Douglas' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Smith Douglas' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Smith Douglas Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Smith Douglas stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Smith Douglas shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Smith Douglas stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Smith Douglas Homes entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 8573.8 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 1.046512 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.1 | |||
| Day Median Price | 18.44 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 18.72 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 1.75 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 1.8 |
Smith Douglas Risk Indicators
The analysis of Smith Douglas' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Smith Douglas' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting smith stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.61 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.15 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.54 | |||
| Variance | 12.55 | |||
| Downside Variance | 11.6 | |||
| Semi Variance | 9.91 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.73) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Smith Douglas Homes offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Smith Douglas' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Smith Douglas Homes Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Smith Douglas Homes Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Smith Douglas to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.
Is Household Durables space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Smith Douglas. If investors know Smith will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Smith Douglas listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.59) | Earnings Share 1.27 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.06) | Return On Assets |
The market value of Smith Douglas Homes is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Smith that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Smith Douglas' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Smith Douglas' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Smith Douglas' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Smith Douglas' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Smith Douglas' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Smith Douglas is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Smith Douglas' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.