Summit Materials Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| SUM Stock | USD 51.16 2.76 5.70% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Summit Materials on the next trading day is expected to be 47.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 76.52. Summit Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Summit Materials' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Summit Materials' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Summit Materials fundamentals over time.
Summit |
Summit Materials Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Summit Materials' financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2013-03-31 | Previous Quarter 538.7 M | Current Value 737.5 M | Quarterly Volatility 185.8 M |
Summit Materials Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Summit Materials on the next trading day is expected to be 47.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.23, mean absolute percentage error of 1.94, and the sum of the absolute errors of 76.52.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Summit Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Summit Materials' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Summit Materials Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Summit Materials | Summit Materials Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Summit Materials Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Summit Materials' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Summit Materials' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 45.00 and 49.74, respectively. We have considered Summit Materials' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Summit Materials stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Summit Materials stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.6107 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.2342 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0295 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 76.5182 |
Predictive Modules for Summit Materials
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Summit Materials. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Summit Materials' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Summit Materials
For every potential investor in Summit, whether a beginner or expert, Summit Materials' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Summit Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Summit. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Summit Materials' price trends.Summit Materials Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Summit Materials stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Summit Materials could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Summit Materials by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Summit Materials Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Summit Materials' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Summit Materials' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Summit Materials Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Summit Materials stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Summit Materials shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Summit Materials stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Summit Materials entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Summit Materials Risk Indicators
The analysis of Summit Materials' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Summit Materials' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting summit stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.63 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.79 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.24 | |||
| Variance | 5.03 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.74 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.22 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.79) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Summit Materials to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Summit Stock, please use our How to Invest in Summit Materials guide.You can also try the Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.
Is Construction Materials space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Summit Materials. If investors know Summit will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Summit Materials listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.69) | Earnings Share 0.85 | Revenue Per Share 23.53 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.474 | Return On Assets 0.0464 |
The market value of Summit Materials is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Summit that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Summit Materials' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Summit Materials' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Summit Materials' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Summit Materials' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Summit Materials' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Summit Materials is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Summit Materials' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.