Commerce Bancshares Stock Performance

CBSH Stock  USD 53.21  1.22  2.24%   
Commerce Bancshares has a performance score of 5 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.69, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Commerce Bancshares' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Commerce Bancshares is expected to be smaller as well. Commerce Bancshares right now shows a risk of 1.34%. Please confirm Commerce Bancshares total risk alpha, expected short fall, market facilitation index, as well as the relationship between the value at risk and daily balance of power , to decide if Commerce Bancshares will be following its price patterns.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Mild

 
Weak
 
Strong
Compared to the overall equity markets, risk-adjusted returns on investments in Commerce Bancshares are ranked lower than 5 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. Despite fairly strong basic indicators, Commerce Bancshares is not utilizing all of its potentials. The current stock price confusion, may contribute to short-horizon losses for the traders. ...more

Actual Historical Performance (%)

One Day Return
(2.24)
Five Day Return
(1.04)
Year To Date Return
1.86
Ten Year Return
110.15
All Time Return
8.7 K
Forward Dividend Yield
0.0207
Payout Ratio
0.2015
Last Split Factor
105:100
Forward Dividend Rate
1.1
Dividend Date
2025-12-15
1
Exchange Ratio Adjusted for Commerce Bancshares, Inc.s Pending Acquisition of FineMark Holdings, Inc.
12/03/2025
 
Commerce Bancshares dividend paid on 15th of December 2025
12/15/2025
2
ASB or CBSH Which Is the Better Value Stock Right Now
12/23/2025
3
CBSH Completes FineMark Acquisition, Expands Wealth Footprint
01/02/2026
4
TD Cowen Issues Pessimistic Forecast for Commerce Bancshares Stock Price
01/07/2026
5
Piper Sandler raises Commerce Bancshares stock price target on FNBT deal - Investing.com Nigeria
01/09/2026
6
Is Commerce Bancshares Pricing Reflect Long Term Value After Recent Share Pullback
01/16/2026
7
Earnings To Watch Commerce Bancshares Reports Q4 Results Tomorrow
01/21/2026
8
Commerce Bancshares Posts Earnings Results, Misses Expectations By 0.02 EPS
01/22/2026
9
Vest Financial LLC Has 3.71 Million Stock Position in Commerce Bancshares, Inc. CBSH
01/23/2026
Begin Period Cash Flow2.7 B
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities483.8 M

Commerce Bancshares Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  5,034  in Commerce Bancshares on October 28, 2025 and sell it today you would earn a total of  287.00  from holding Commerce Bancshares or generate 5.7% return on investment over 90 days. Commerce Bancshares is currently generating 0.0998% in daily expected returns and assumes 1.3436% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. In different words, 12% of stocks are less volatile than Commerce, and 98% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Commerce Bancshares is expected to generate 1.82 times more return on investment than the market. However, the company is 1.82 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about 0.07 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.07 per unit of risk.

Commerce Bancshares Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of Commerce Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 53.21 90 days 53.21 
about 22.09
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Commerce Bancshares to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 22.09 (This Commerce Bancshares probability density function shows the probability of Commerce Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Commerce Bancshares has a beta of 0.69 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Commerce Bancshares average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Commerce Bancshares will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Commerce Bancshares has an alpha of 0.0099, implying that it can generate a 0.009859 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Commerce Bancshares Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Commerce Bancshares

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Commerce Bancshares. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Commerce Bancshares' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
51.8853.2154.54
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
42.8144.1458.53
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
52.8954.2255.56
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
56.0861.6268.40
Details

Commerce Bancshares Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Commerce Bancshares is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Commerce Bancshares' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Commerce Bancshares, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Commerce Bancshares within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.01
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.69
σ
Overall volatility
1.56
Ir
Information ratio -0.0088

Commerce Bancshares Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Commerce Bancshares for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Commerce Bancshares can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 69.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 15th of December 2025 Commerce Bancshares paid $ 0.275 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from stockstory.org: Earnings To Watch Banc of California Reports Q4 Results Tomorrow

Commerce Bancshares Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Commerce Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Commerce Bancshares' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Commerce Bancshares' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding138.9 M
Cash And Short Term Investments9.9 B

Commerce Bancshares Fundamentals Growth

Commerce Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Commerce Bancshares, and Commerce Bancshares fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Commerce Stock performance.

About Commerce Bancshares Performance

By evaluating Commerce Bancshares' fundamental ratios, stakeholders can gain valuable insights into Commerce Bancshares' financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability, helping them make informed investment and management decisions. For instance, if Commerce Bancshares has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if Commerce Bancshares has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements. Please also refer to our technical analysis and fundamental analysis pages.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Return On Tangible Assets 0.01  0.01 
Return On Capital Employed 0.21  0.18 
Return On Assets 0.01  0.01 
Return On Equity 0.14  0.10 

Things to note about Commerce Bancshares performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Commerce Bancshares for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Commerce Bancshares help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 69.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 15th of December 2025 Commerce Bancshares paid $ 0.275 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from stockstory.org: Earnings To Watch Banc of California Reports Q4 Results Tomorrow
Evaluating Commerce Bancshares' performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate Commerce Bancshares' stock performance include:
  • Analyzing Commerce Bancshares' financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Commerce Bancshares' stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining Commerce Bancshares' industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating Commerce Bancshares' management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Commerce Bancshares' management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Commerce Bancshares' stock. These opinions can provide insight into Commerce Bancshares' potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating Commerce Bancshares' stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact Commerce Bancshares' stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

Complementary Tools for Commerce Stock analysis

When running Commerce Bancshares' price analysis, check to measure Commerce Bancshares' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Commerce Bancshares is operating at the current time. Most of Commerce Bancshares' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Commerce Bancshares' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Commerce Bancshares' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Commerce Bancshares to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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