Commerce Bancshares Stock Technical Analysis
| CBSH Stock | USD 53.11 1.62 2.96% |
As of the 12th of February 2026, Commerce Bancshares shows the Downside Deviation of 1.23, risk adjusted performance of 0.0775, and Mean Deviation of 0.9525. Commerce Bancshares technical analysis gives you the methodology to make use of historical prices and volume patterns to determine a pattern that approximates the direction of the firm's future prices.
Commerce Bancshares Momentum Analysis
Momentum indicators are widely used technical indicators which help to measure the pace at which the price of specific equity, such as Commerce, fluctuates. Many momentum indicators also complement each other and can be helpful when the market is rising or falling as compared to CommerceCommerce Bancshares' Momentum analyses are specifically helpful, as they help investors time the market using mark points where the market can reverse. The reversal spots are usually identified through divergence between price movement and momentum.Commerce Bancshares Analyst Consensus
| Target Price | Consensus | # of Analysts | |
| 62.0 | Hold | 7 | Odds |
Most Commerce analysts issue ratings four times a year, at intervals of three months. Ratings are usually accompanied by a target price to helps potential investors understand Commerce stock's fair price compared to its market value. Analysts arrive at stock ratings after researching public financial statements of Commerce Bancshares, talking to its executives and customers, or listening to Commerce conference calls.
Is there potential for Regional Banks market expansion? Will Commerce introduce new products? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Commerce Bancshares. Projected growth potential of Commerce fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Understanding fair value requires weighing current performance against future potential. All the valuation information about Commerce Bancshares listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.06 | Dividend Share 1.1 | Earnings Share 4.04 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.065 |
Investors evaluate Commerce Bancshares using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Commerce Bancshares' intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Commerce Bancshares' market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Commerce Bancshares' intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Commerce Bancshares should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, Commerce Bancshares' market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.
Commerce Bancshares 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Commerce Bancshares' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Commerce Bancshares.
| 11/14/2025 |
| 02/12/2026 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Commerce Bancshares on November 14, 2025 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Commerce Bancshares or generate 0.0% return on investment in Commerce Bancshares over 90 days. Commerce Bancshares is related to or competes with BOK Financial, Pinnacle Financial, Valley National, CullenFrost Bankers, Prosperity Bancshares, UMB Financial, and Popular. Commerce Bancshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Commerce Bank that provides retail, mortgage banking,... More
Commerce Bancshares Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Commerce Bancshares' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Commerce Bancshares upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.23 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0131 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 5.74 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.03) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.4 |
Commerce Bancshares Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Commerce Bancshares' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Commerce Bancshares' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Commerce Bancshares historical prices to predict the future Commerce Bancshares' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0775 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0425 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.04) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0138 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.1519 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Commerce Bancshares' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Commerce Bancshares February 12, 2026 Technical Indicators
| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0775 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1619 | |||
| Mean Deviation | 0.9525 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.14 | |||
| Downside Deviation | 1.23 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 1076.39 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.3 | |||
| Variance | 1.68 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0131 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0425 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.04) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0138 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.1519 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 5.74 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.03) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.4 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.51 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.29 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.07) | |||
| Skewness | (0.05) | |||
| Kurtosis | 1.44 |
Commerce Bancshares Backtested Returns
Commerce Bancshares is very steady at the moment. Commerce Bancshares secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.1, which signifies that the company had a 0.1 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-six technical indicators for Commerce Bancshares, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm Commerce Bancshares' Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0775, downside deviation of 1.23, and Mean Deviation of 0.9525 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.14%. Commerce Bancshares has a performance score of 8 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.73, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Commerce Bancshares' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Commerce Bancshares is expected to be smaller as well. Commerce Bancshares right now shows a risk of 1.34%. Please confirm Commerce Bancshares value at risk, and the relationship between the total risk alpha and expected short fall , to decide if Commerce Bancshares will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | 0.21 |
Weak predictability
Commerce Bancshares has weak predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Commerce Bancshares time series from 14th of November 2025 to 29th of December 2025 and 29th of December 2025 to 12th of February 2026. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Commerce Bancshares price movement. The serial correlation of 0.21 indicates that over 21.0% of current Commerce Bancshares price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.21 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.21 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.85 |
Commerce Bancshares technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
Commerce Bancshares Technical Analysis
The output start index for this execution was one with a total number of output elements of sixty. The Normalized Average True Range is used to analyze tradable apportunities for Commerce Bancshares across different markets.
About Commerce Bancshares Technical Analysis
The technical analysis module can be used to analyzes prices, returns, volume, basic money flow, and other market information and help investors to determine the real value of Commerce Bancshares on a daily or weekly bases. We use both bottom-up as well as top-down valuation methodologies to arrive at the intrinsic value of Commerce Bancshares based on its technical analysis. In general, a bottom-up approach, as applied to this company, focuses on Commerce Bancshares price pattern first instead of the macroeconomic environment surrounding Commerce Bancshares. By analyzing Commerce Bancshares's financials, daily price indicators, and related drivers such as dividends, momentum ratios, and various types of growth rates, we attempt to find the most accurate representation of Commerce Bancshares's intrinsic value. As compared to a bottom-up approach, our top-down model examines the macroeconomic factors that affect the industry/economy before zooming in to Commerce Bancshares specific price patterns or momentum indicators. Please read more on our technical analysis page.
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0194 | 0.0173 | 0.02 | 0.0239 | Price To Sales Ratio | 3.53 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 2.54 |
Commerce Bancshares February 12, 2026 Technical Indicators
Most technical analysis of Commerce help investors determine whether a current trend will continue and, if not, when it will shift. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Commerce from various momentum indicators to cycle indicators. When you analyze Commerce charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at different other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0775 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1619 | |||
| Mean Deviation | 0.9525 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.14 | |||
| Downside Deviation | 1.23 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 1076.39 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.3 | |||
| Variance | 1.68 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0131 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0425 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.04) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0138 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.1519 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 5.74 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.03) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.4 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.51 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.29 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.07) | |||
| Skewness | (0.05) | |||
| Kurtosis | 1.44 |
Commerce Bancshares February 12, 2026 Daily Trend Indicators
Traders often use several different daily volumes and price technical indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Commerce stock. With literally thousands of different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.00 | ||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (Huge) | ||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | ||
| Day Median Price | 53.11 | ||
| Day Typical Price | 53.11 | ||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.81) |
Complementary Tools for Commerce Stock analysis
When running Commerce Bancshares' price analysis, check to measure Commerce Bancshares' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Commerce Bancshares is operating at the current time. Most of Commerce Bancshares' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Commerce Bancshares' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Commerce Bancshares' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Commerce Bancshares to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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