Carlyle Group Stock Performance

CG Stock  USD 55.41  2.98  5.10%   
Carlyle has a performance score of 4 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 2.13, which signifies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Carlyle will likely underperform. Carlyle Group right now shows a risk of 2.13%. Please confirm Carlyle Group semi variance, rate of daily change, and the relationship between the value at risk and kurtosis , to decide if Carlyle Group will be following its price patterns.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Soft

 
Weak
 
Strong
Compared to the overall equity markets, risk-adjusted returns on investments in Carlyle Group are ranked lower than 4 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. Despite nearly unsteady technical and fundamental indicators, Carlyle may actually be approaching a critical reversion point that can send shares even higher in March 2026. ...more

Actual Historical Performance (%)

One Day Return
(5.10)
Five Day Return
(5.89)
Year To Date Return
(8.95)
Ten Year Return
333.91
All Time Return
151.29
Forward Dividend Yield
0.024
Payout Ratio
0.4651
Forward Dividend Rate
1.4
Dividend Date
2025-11-19
Ex Dividend Date
2025-11-10
 
Carlyle dividend paid on 19th of November 2025
11/19/2025
1
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01/12/2026
2
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01/20/2026
3
Two Six Technologies Expanded Operational Footprint and Strengthened Strategic Product Portfolio in 2025
01/27/2026
4
Lukoil signs agreement to sell subsidiary to Carlyle
01/30/2026
5
Private Equitys Quiet Pivot Into Sanctioned Energy Space
02/02/2026
6
New York State Common Retirement Fund Buys 29,000 Shares of Carlyle Group Inc. CG
02/03/2026
7
Yum Brands Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
02/04/2026
Begin Period Cash Flow1.4 B
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-77.6 M

Carlyle Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  5,250  in Carlyle Group on November 8, 2025 and sell it today you would earn a total of  291.00  from holding Carlyle Group or generate 5.54% return on investment over 90 days. Carlyle Group is generating 0.1123% of daily returns and assumes 2.1264% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. Put differently, 19% of stocks are less risky than Carlyle on the basis of their historical return distribution, and some 98% of all equities are expected to be superior in generating returns on investments over the next 90 days.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon Carlyle is expected to generate 2.78 times more return on investment than the market. However, the company is 2.78 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about 0.05 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.07 per unit of risk.

Carlyle Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of Carlyle Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 55.41 90 days 55.41 
about 71.4
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Carlyle to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 71.4 (This Carlyle Group probability density function shows the probability of Carlyle Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.13 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Carlyle will likely underperform. Additionally Carlyle Group has an alpha of 0.0053, implying that it can generate a 0.005324 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Carlyle Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Carlyle

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Carlyle Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
53.2955.4057.51
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
49.8763.4665.57
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
52.5654.6756.78
Details
18 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
63.7070.0077.70
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Carlyle. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Carlyle's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Carlyle's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Carlyle Group.

Carlyle Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Carlyle is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Carlyle's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Carlyle Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Carlyle within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.01
β
Beta against Dow Jones2.13
σ
Overall volatility
4.60
Ir
Information ratio 0.02

Carlyle Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Carlyle for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Carlyle Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Carlyle Group reports about 1.61 B in cash with (759.5 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 4.42.
Carlyle Group has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Roughly 66.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Yum Brands Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Carlyle Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Carlyle Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Carlyle's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Carlyle's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding368 M
Cash And Short Term Investments2.1 B

Carlyle Fundamentals Growth

Carlyle Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Carlyle, and Carlyle fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Carlyle Stock performance.

About Carlyle Performance

By analyzing Carlyle's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can gain valuable insights into Carlyle's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability, helping them make informed investment and management decisions. For instance, if Carlyle has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if Carlyle has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Days Of Inventory On Hand(10.99)(11.54)
Return On Tangible Assets 0.05  0.05 
Return On Capital Employed 0.07  0.11 
Return On Assets 0.05  0.05 
Return On Equity 0.21  0.20 

Things to note about Carlyle Group performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Carlyle for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Carlyle Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Carlyle Group reports about 1.61 B in cash with (759.5 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 4.42.
Carlyle Group has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Roughly 66.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Yum Brands Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Evaluating Carlyle's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate Carlyle's stock performance include:
  • Analyzing Carlyle's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Carlyle's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining Carlyle's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating Carlyle's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Carlyle's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Carlyle's stock. These opinions can provide insight into Carlyle's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating Carlyle's stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact Carlyle's stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

Complementary Tools for Carlyle Stock analysis

When running Carlyle's price analysis, check to measure Carlyle's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Carlyle is operating at the current time. Most of Carlyle's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Carlyle's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Carlyle's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Carlyle to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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