Carlyle Valuation

Stocks . USA . 
Stock . Carlyle Group
CG Stock  USD 48.32  -0.71  -1.45%   
Carlyle trades at a discounted earnings multiple, reflecting healthy profitability and manageable leverage. Carlyle's enterprise value is currently 29.7 B. That implies a trailing P/E of roughly 6.52.
Aligned With Model
Today
48.32
Right now, the market is showing Very Low price fluctuation for Carlyle. For valuation purposes, Macroaxis measures Carlyle Group over a 3 months time horizon. Extending Carlyle's horizon generally improves valuation accuracy.

Value Estimates Divergence

Carlyle is priced at $48.32 per share while the model-derived intrinsic value estimate sits near $47.96, reading as aligned with model. For Carlyle, the key valuation inputs are current valuation of $29.69B and a return on equity of 14%, with those signals pressure-tested against technical indicators and risk profile.
Historical Market  48.32 Intrinsic  47.96 Sentiment  48.32 Naive  47.26
The intrinsic value of Carlyle's stock is derived from projected cash flows, discounted at a rate that reflects the business risk profile. Differences between intrinsic value and market price reveal where the market's expectations differ from the model's assumptions.
45.25
Downside
47.96
Intrinsic Value
50.67
Upside
Current intrinsic value estimate framed by downside and upside probability thresholds.
Target Odds
Assessing the upside and downside potential of Carlyle Group helps quantify how much the market may be over- or under-pricing the current fundamentals. Carlyle stock's upside depends on sustained growth durability or multiple expansion, while the downside reflects margin compression or competitive pressure.
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
44.4848.7953.10
Details
Sentiment
Range
LowEstimatedHigh
45.6148.3251.03
Details
Potential
Annual Dividend
LowForecastedHigh
0.991.051.11
Details

Valuation Framework, Methodology & Assumptions

Carlyle is a large-cap equity in Asset Management & Custody Banks, Financial Services, SAMPP TSX Composite categories. Intrinsic value assumptions are benchmarked against sector averages. For Carlyle, the leading valuation metrics are P/E of 6.52, P/B of 3.22; additional context comes from P/S of 4.39, enterprise value of 29.69 B.

Reported values for Carlyle Group are derived from periodic company reporting and market reference feeds and standardized for analysis. Valuation outputs are model-derived and depend on published assumptions and reference inputs.

The analysis above is generated by quantitative models and is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or an endorsement to buy or sell any security. All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. See our Terms of Use for full details.

Financial data referenced in this analysis is derived from publicly available SEC filings, audited financial statements, and third-party market data providers. The intrinsic value estimate is generated by Macroaxis quantitative models that incorporate fundamental analysis, technical indicators, and risk metrics.

The methodology combines multiple analytical inputs:

  • Fundamental analysis - financial statements, profitability ratios, debt structure, and cash flow metrics sourced from SEC filings and public financial reports
  • Technical indicators - historical price patterns, momentum signals, and volatility measures
  • Risk assessment - probability of bankruptcy models, market risk metrics, and downside scenario analysis
  • Peer comparison - relative valuation against industry peers using standardized multiples

Model outputs are refreshed periodically as new financial data becomes available. Past model performance is not indicative of future results. The intrinsic value estimate reflects a point-in-time calculation and should be considered alongside other research and professional advice.

Data sourced from SEC filings (EDGAR), public financial statements, and market data providers.

Editorial review and methodology oversight provided by: Rifka Kats, Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board

Growth Indicators

The market case for Carlyle Group appears tied more to rebuilding earnings power than to investors paying up for a high-expectation growth profile. In this context, the key question is whether current momentum can rebuild durable earnings power rather than simply produce a short-lived rebound.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding370.9 M
Quarterly Earnings Growth Y O Y70.20%
Forward Price Earnings11.1235

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