First Trust California Etf Performance

FCAL Etf  USD 49.51  0.06  0.12%   
The etf shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.0024, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning First Trust are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, First Trust is likely to outperform the market.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Solid

 
Weak
 
Strong
Compared to the overall equity markets, risk-adjusted returns on investments in First Trust California are ranked lower than 17 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. Despite quite persistent basic indicators, First Trust is not utilizing all of its potentials. The latest stock price mess, may contribute to short-term losses for the institutional investors. ...more
1
First Trust California Municipal High Income ETF Stock Passes Above 200-Day Moving Average Heres What Happened - Defense World
11/18/2025
2
Risk Channels and Responsive Allocation - Stock Traders Daily
01/22/2026

First Trust Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  4,875  in First Trust California on October 31, 2025 and sell it today you would earn a total of  70.00  from holding First Trust California or generate 1.44% return on investment over 90 days. First Trust California is currently generating 0.0238% in daily expected returns and assumes 0.1112% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. In different words, 0% of etfs are less volatile than First, and 99% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Given the investment horizon of 90 days First Trust is expected to generate 2.23 times less return on investment than the market. But when comparing it to its historical volatility, the company is 6.79 times less risky than the market. It trades about 0.21 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.07 of returns per unit of risk over similar time horizon.
Below is the normalized historical share price chart for First Trust California extending back to June 27, 2017. This chart has been adjusted for all splits and dividends and is plotted against all major global economic recessions. As of today, the current price of First Trust stands at 49.51, as last reported on the 29th of January, with the highest price reaching 49.51 and the lowest price hitting 49.45 during the day.
3 y Volatility
4.97
200 Day MA
48.5246
1 y Volatility
3.61
50 Day MA
49.344
Inception Date
2017-06-20
 
Covid
 
Interest Hikes

First Trust Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of First Etf price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 49.51 90 days 49.51 
roughly 2.28
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of First Trust to move above the current price in 90 days from now is roughly 2.28 (This First Trust California probability density function shows the probability of First Etf to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days First Trust California has a beta of -0.0024. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding First Trust are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, First Trust California is likely to outperform the market. Additionally First Trust California has an alpha of 0.0103, implying that it can generate a 0.0103 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   First Trust Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for First Trust

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Trust California. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
49.3449.4549.56
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
45.3245.4354.40
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
49.2249.3349.44
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
49.0449.3249.60
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as First Trust. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against First Trust's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, First Trust's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in First Trust California.

First Trust Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. First Trust is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the First Trust's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold First Trust California, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of First Trust within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.01
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.0024
σ
Overall volatility
0.21
Ir
Information ratio -0.51

First Trust Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of First Trust for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for First Trust California can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 20.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from news.google.com: Risk Channels and Responsive Allocation - Stock Traders Daily
The fund retains most of the assets under management (AUM) in different types of exotic instruments.

First Trust Fundamentals Growth

First Etf prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of First Trust, and First Trust fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on First Etf performance.

About First Trust Performance

By examining First Trust's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can obtain critical insights into First Trust's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability. These insights assist in making well-informed investment and management decisions. For example, a high Return on Assets and Return on Equity would indicate that First Trust is effectively utilizing its assets and equity to generate significant profits, enhancing its appeal to investors. On the other hand, low ROA and ROE values could reveal issues in asset and equity management, highlighting the need for operational improvements.
The fund seeks to achieve its investment objectives by investing at least 80 percent of its net assets in municipal debt securities that pay interest that is exempt from regular federal income taxes and California income taxes. California Municipal is traded on NASDAQ Exchange in the United States.
About 20.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from news.google.com: Risk Channels and Responsive Allocation - Stock Traders Daily
The fund retains most of the assets under management (AUM) in different types of exotic instruments.
When determining whether First Trust California is a strong investment it is important to analyze First Trust's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact First Trust's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding First Etf, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Investing Opportunities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in First Trust California. Also, note that the market value of any etf could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in nation.
You can also try the Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.
The market value of First Trust California is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of First that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of First Trust's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is First Trust's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because First Trust's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect First Trust's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Trust's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Trust is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Meanwhile, First Trust's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.