Japan Tobacco Stock Performance

JAPAF Stock  USD 38.19  1.10  2.97%   
On a scale of 0 to 100, Japan Tobacco holds a performance score of 4. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of -0.67, which attests to possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Japan Tobacco are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Japan Tobacco is likely to outperform the market. Please check Japan Tobacco's semi variance, day median price, and the relationship between the value at risk and kurtosis , to make a quick decision on whether Japan Tobacco's current trending patterns will revert.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Soft

 
Weak
 
Strong
Compared to the overall equity markets, risk-adjusted returns on investments in Japan Tobacco are ranked lower than 4 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. Despite nearly fragile basic indicators, Japan Tobacco reported solid returns over the last few months and may actually be approaching a breakup point. ...more
Begin Period Cash Flow538.8 B
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-97.5 B
  

Japan Tobacco Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  3,480  in Japan Tobacco on November 8, 2025 and sell it today you would earn a total of  339.00  from holding Japan Tobacco or generate 9.74% return on investment over 90 days. Japan Tobacco is currently producing 0.2313% returns and takes up 3.9027% volatility of returns over 90 trading days. Put another way, 35% of traded pink sheets are less volatile than Japan, and 96% of all traded equity instruments are likely to generate higher returns over the next 90 trading days.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Assuming the 90 days horizon Japan Tobacco is expected to generate 5.1 times more return on investment than the market. However, the company is 5.1 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about 0.06 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.07 per unit of risk.

Japan Tobacco Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of Japan Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 38.19 90 days 38.19 
about 19.98
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Japan Tobacco to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 19.98 (This Japan Tobacco probability density function shows the probability of Japan Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Japan Tobacco has a beta of -0.67. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Japan Tobacco are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Japan Tobacco is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Japan Tobacco has an alpha of 0.2865, implying that it can generate a 0.29 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Japan Tobacco Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Japan Tobacco

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Japan Tobacco. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
34.2938.1942.09
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
27.5931.4942.01
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
34.2338.1442.04
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
34.1337.1840.22
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Japan Tobacco. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Japan Tobacco's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Japan Tobacco's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Japan Tobacco.

Japan Tobacco Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Japan Tobacco is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Japan Tobacco's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Japan Tobacco, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Japan Tobacco within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.29
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.67
σ
Overall volatility
1.65
Ir
Information ratio 0.06

Japan Tobacco Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Japan Tobacco for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Japan Tobacco can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Japan Tobacco had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
About 34.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders

Japan Tobacco Fundamentals Growth

Japan Pink Sheet prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Japan Tobacco, and Japan Tobacco fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Japan Pink Sheet performance.

About Japan Tobacco Performance

By analyzing Japan Tobacco's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can gain valuable insights into Japan Tobacco's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability, helping them make informed investment and management decisions. For instance, if Japan Tobacco has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if Japan Tobacco has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements.
Japan Tobacco Inc., a tobacco company, manufactures and sells tobacco products, prescription drugs, and processed foods in Japan and internationally. Japan Tobacco Inc. was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan. Japan Tobacco operates under Tobacco classification in the United States and is traded on OTC Exchange. It employs 55381 people.

Things to note about Japan Tobacco performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Japan Tobacco for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Pink Sheet alerts and notifications screener for Japan Tobacco help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Japan Tobacco had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
About 34.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Evaluating Japan Tobacco's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate Japan Tobacco's pink sheet performance include:
  • Analyzing Japan Tobacco's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Japan Tobacco's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining Japan Tobacco's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating Japan Tobacco's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Japan Tobacco's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Japan Tobacco's pink sheet. These opinions can provide insight into Japan Tobacco's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating Japan Tobacco's pink sheet performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact Japan Tobacco's pink sheet market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

Complementary Tools for Japan Pink Sheet analysis

When running Japan Tobacco's price analysis, check to measure Japan Tobacco's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Japan Tobacco is operating at the current time. Most of Japan Tobacco's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Japan Tobacco's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Japan Tobacco's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Japan Tobacco to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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