Northern Oil Gas Stock Performance

NOG Stock  USD 27.86  0.50  1.83%   
On a scale of 0 to 100, Northern Oil holds a performance score of 13. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.66, which conveys possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Northern Oil's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Northern Oil is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Northern Oil's expected short fall, and the relationship between the value at risk and daily balance of power , to make a quick decision on whether Northern Oil's current price movements will revert.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Good

 
Weak
 
Strong
Compared to the overall equity markets, risk-adjusted returns on investments in Northern Oil Gas are ranked lower than 13 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. Despite nearly unfluctuating basic indicators, Northern Oil reported solid returns over the last few months and may actually be approaching a breakup point. ...more

Actual Historical Performance (%)

One Day Return
1.83
Five Day Return
10.56
Year To Date Return
26.58
Ten Year Return
3.57
All Time Return
(8.05)
Forward Dividend Yield
0.0658
Payout Ratio
0.4826
Last Split Factor
1:10
Forward Dividend Rate
1.8
Dividend Date
2026-01-30
1
Is Northern Oil and Gas Inc. stock trading at a premium valuation - 2025 Volatility Report Free Expert Approved Momentum Trade Ideas - B NI V
11/26/2025
2
Acquisition by Roy Easley of 10000 shares of Northern Oil at 23.3837 subject to Rule 16b-3
12/11/2025
3
This 8-Yielding Stock Offers a Risky but High Dividend as Energy Uncertainty Rises
01/15/2026
4
Register Financial Advisors LLC Purchases 82,033 Shares of Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. NOG
01/21/2026
5
Northern Oil and Gas stock price target lowered by Raymond James - Investing.com
01/26/2026
 
Northern Oil dividend paid on 30th of January 2026
01/30/2026
6
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. A bull case theory - MSN
02/02/2026
7
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. ABullCase Theory
02/03/2026
8
NOG Provides Fourth Quarter Update
02/10/2026
9
Zacks Research Has Negative Forecast for NOG FY2027 Earnings
02/11/2026
10
Infinity Natural, Northern Oil adjust ownership split of pending joint Utica acquisition
02/19/2026
Begin Period Cash Flow8.2 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-1.7 B

Northern Oil Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  2,133  in Northern Oil Gas on November 22, 2025 and sell it today you would earn a total of  653.00  from holding Northern Oil Gas or generate 30.61% return on investment over 90 days. Northern Oil Gas is generating 0.4952% of daily returns assuming volatility of 2.9134% on return distribution over 90 days investment horizon. In other words, 26% of stocks are less volatile than Northern, and above 91% of all equities are expected to generate higher returns over the next 90 days.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Northern Oil is expected to generate 3.88 times more return on investment than the market. However, the company is 3.88 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about 0.17 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.14 per unit of risk.

Northern Oil Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of Northern Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 27.86 90 days 27.86 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Northern Oil to move above the current price in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Northern Oil Gas probability density function shows the probability of Northern Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Northern Oil has a beta of 0.66. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Northern Oil average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Northern Oil Gas will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Northern Oil Gas has an alpha of 0.377, implying that it can generate a 0.38 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Northern Oil Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Northern Oil

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Northern Oil Gas. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
24.9727.8630.75
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
23.1025.9928.88
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
24.6527.5430.43
Details
10 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
27.2129.9033.19
Details

Northern Oil Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Northern Oil is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Northern Oil's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Northern Oil Gas, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Northern Oil within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.38
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.66
σ
Overall volatility
1.77
Ir
Information ratio 0.13

Northern Oil Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Northern Oil for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Northern Oil Gas can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Northern Oil Gas has 2.37 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 7.22, demonstrating that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. Northern Oil Gas has a current ratio of 0.59, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. That said, strategic use of leverage may enable Northern to fund expansion initiatives and generate superior returns.
Over 97.0% of Northern Oil shares are owned by institutional investors
On 30th of January 2026 Northern Oil paid $ 0.45 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from news.google.com: Talos Energy Expected to Beat Earnings Estimates What to Know Ahead of Q4 Release - Finviz

Northern Oil Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Northern Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Northern Oil's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Northern Oil's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding101.3 M
Cash And Short Term Investments8.9 M

Northern Oil Fundamentals Growth

Northern Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Northern Oil, and Northern Oil fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Northern Stock performance.

About Northern Oil Performance

By analyzing Northern Oil's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can gain valuable insights into Northern Oil's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability, helping them make informed investment and management decisions. For instance, if Northern Oil has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if Northern Oil has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Days Of Inventory On Hand 210.37  199.85 
Return On Tangible Assets 0.08  0.09 
Return On Capital Employed 0.19  0.20 
Return On Assets 0.08  0.09 
Return On Equity 0.20  0.19 

Things to note about Northern Oil Gas performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Northern Oil for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Northern Oil Gas help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Northern Oil Gas has 2.37 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 7.22, demonstrating that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. Northern Oil Gas has a current ratio of 0.59, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. That said, strategic use of leverage may enable Northern to fund expansion initiatives and generate superior returns.
Over 97.0% of Northern Oil shares are owned by institutional investors
On 30th of January 2026 Northern Oil paid $ 0.45 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from news.google.com: Talos Energy Expected to Beat Earnings Estimates What to Know Ahead of Q4 Release - Finviz
Evaluating Northern Oil's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate Northern Oil's stock performance include:
  • Analyzing Northern Oil's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Northern Oil's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining Northern Oil's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating Northern Oil's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Northern Oil's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Northern Oil's stock. These opinions can provide insight into Northern Oil's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating Northern Oil's stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact Northern Oil's stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

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When running Northern Oil's price analysis, check to measure Northern Oil's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Northern Oil is operating at the current time. Most of Northern Oil's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Northern Oil's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Northern Oil's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Northern Oil to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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