Air China Ltd Stock Price Prediction
| AIRYY Stock | USD 18.22 0.00 0.00% |
Momentum 68
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Air China hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Air China Ltd from the perspective of Air China response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Air China to buy its pink sheet at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Air because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell pink sheets at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Air China after-hype prediction price | USD 20.9 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Air |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Air China's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Air China After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Air China at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Air China or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Air China, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Air China Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Air China's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Air China's historical news coverage. Air China's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 17.60 and 24.20, respectively. We have considered Air China's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Air China is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Air China is based on 3 months time horizon.
Air China Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Air China is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Air China backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Air China, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.36 | 3.30 | 2.68 | 0.54 | 4 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 4 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
18.22 | 20.90 | 14.71 |
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Air China Hype Timeline
Air China is presently traded for 18.22. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 2.68, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.54. Air is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 20.9 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 44.3%. The price jump on the next news is estimated to be 14.71%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.36%. The volatility of related hype on Air China is about 221.48%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 18.76. Air China Ltd has accumulated 53.12 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 4.25, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Air China has a current ratio of 0.36, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Air China until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Air China's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Air China sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Air to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Air China's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 4 days. Check out Air China Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Air China Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Air China's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Air China's future price movements. Getting to know how Air China's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Air China may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CHEAF | China Eastern Airlines | 7.45 | 12 per month | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 13.73 | |
| CHKIF | China Southern Airlines | 7.45 | 4 per month | 1.29 | 0.14 | 7.46 | (2.86) | 18.38 | |
| SINGF | Singapore Airlines | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.36 | (0.01) | 4.95 | (4.80) | 17.76 | |
| ARRPY | Aeroports de Paris | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 14.27 | |
| SINGY | Singapore Airlines | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 1.20 | (1.36) | 3.76 | |
| AEOXF | Aeroports de Paris | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 6.21 | (9.01) | 19.28 | |
| QUBSF | Qantas Airways Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 1.98 | (3.50) | 13.44 | |
| DLAKY | Deutsche Lufthansa AG | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.60 | 0.14 | 4.43 | (3.50) | 12.67 | |
| CPCAY | Cathay Pacific Airways | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.47 | 0.04 | 3.57 | (2.65) | 9.81 | |
| DLAKF | Deutsche Lufthansa AG | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.28 | 0.12 | 10.53 | (5.21) | 24.09 |
Air China Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Air price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Air using various technical indicators. When you analyze Air charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Air China Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Air China stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Air China Ltd, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Air China based on analysis of Air China hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Air China's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Air China's related companies.
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for Air Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Air China's price analysis, check to measure Air China's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Air China is operating at the current time. Most of Air China's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Air China's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Air China's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Air China to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.