Blue Bird Corp Stock Price Patterns

BLBD Stock  USD 51.06  0.75  1.49%   
At the present time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Blue Bird's share price is approaching 47 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Blue Bird, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 47

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Blue Bird's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Blue Bird and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Blue Bird's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Blue Bird Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Blue Bird's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.518
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.7925
EPS Estimate Current Year
4.282
EPS Estimate Next Year
4.7994
Wall Street Target Price
63.75
Using Blue Bird hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Blue Bird Corp from the perspective of Blue Bird response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Blue Bird using Blue Bird's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Blue using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Blue Bird's stock price.

Blue Bird Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Blue Bird's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Blue. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Blue Bird stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA
48.4657
Short Percent
0.1941
Short Ratio
13.39
Shares Short Prior Month
5.3 M
50 Day MA
50.2402

Blue Bird Corp Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Blue Bird's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Blue. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Blue can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Blue Bird Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Blue Bird's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Blue Bird.

Blue Bird Implied Volatility

    
  0.62  
Blue Bird's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Blue Bird Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Blue Bird's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Blue Bird stock will not fluctuate a lot when Blue Bird's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Blue Bird to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Blue because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Blue Bird after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 51.07  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Blue contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Blue Bird Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0388% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Blue Bird trading at USD 51.06, that is roughly USD 0.0198 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Blue Bird's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Blue Bird Corp options at the current volatility level of 0.62%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Blue Bird Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
45.9557.3259.16
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
49.4851.3253.17
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
58.0163.7570.76
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.021.071.21
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Blue Bird. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Blue Bird's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Blue Bird's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Blue Bird Corp.

Blue Bird After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Blue Bird at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Blue Bird or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Blue Bird, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Blue Bird Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Blue Bird's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Blue Bird's historical news coverage. Blue Bird's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 49.23 and 52.91, respectively. We have considered Blue Bird's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
51.06
51.07
After-hype Price
52.91
Upside
Blue Bird is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Blue Bird Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.

Blue Bird Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Blue Bird is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Blue Bird backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Blue Bird, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.01 
1.84
  0.01 
 0.00  
12 Events / Month
7 Events / Month
In about 12 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
51.06
51.07
0.02 
191.67  
Notes

Blue Bird Hype Timeline

Blue Bird Corp is currently traded for 51.06. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Blue is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 51.07 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 191.67%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.02%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.01%. The volatility of related hype on Blue Bird is about 1286.71%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 51.06. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.48 B. Net Income was 127.72 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 303.51 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 12 days.
Check out Blue Bird Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Blue Bird Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Blue Bird's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Blue Bird's future price movements. Getting to know how Blue Bird's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Blue Bird may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
PSNYPolestar Automotive Holding 1.87 11 per month 0.00 (0.09) 12.04 (14.88) 34.99 
AINAlbany International(0.46)10 per month 0.00 (0.03) 3.53 (3.73) 10.65 
MCRIMonarch Casino Resort(1.05)9 per month 1.12 (0.05) 1.48 (1.70) 4.49 
MBCMasterBrand(0.20)7 per month 0.00 (0.02) 5.50 (3.83) 15.86 
WENThe Wendys Co 0.01 11 per month 0.00 (0.08) 4.07 (4.04) 11.11 
TILEInterface 0.54 13 per month 1.69  0.11  2.93 (2.51) 8.15 
PZZAPapa Johns International(0.39)12 per month 0.00 (0.24) 4.41 (4.91) 11.95 
ACVAACV Auctions 0.06 9 per month 0.00 (0.02) 5.48 (3.71) 41.07 
MODGTopgolf Callaway Brands 0.05 8 per month 2.56  0.20  8.81 (3.96) 23.39 
CCSCentury Communities 1.00 9 per month 1.98 (0.01) 6.80 (3.74) 15.56 

Blue Bird Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Blue price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Blue using various technical indicators. When you analyze Blue charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Blue Bird Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Blue Bird stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Blue Bird Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Blue Bird based on analysis of Blue Bird hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Blue Bird's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Blue Bird's related companies.
 2014 2016 2026 (projected)
Dividend Yield6.770.0027048.17
Price To Sales Ratio0.03920.320.0372

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Complementary Tools for Blue Stock analysis

When running Blue Bird's price analysis, check to measure Blue Bird's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Blue Bird is operating at the current time. Most of Blue Bird's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Blue Bird's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Blue Bird's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Blue Bird to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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