Evolent Health Stock Price Prediction
| EVH Stock | USD 3.23 0.17 5.00% |
Momentum 35
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.1239 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.0619 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.3018 | Wall Street Target Price 9.1818 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.1025 |
Using Evolent Health hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Evolent Health from the perspective of Evolent Health response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Evolent Health using Evolent Health's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Evolent using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Evolent Health's stock price.
Evolent Health Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Evolent Health's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Evolent. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Evolent Health stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 7.7541 | Short Percent 0.1782 | Short Ratio 6.22 | Shares Short Prior Month 18.1 M | 50 Day MA 4.0128 |
Evolent Health Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Evolent Health's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Evolent. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Evolent can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Evolent Health. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Evolent Health's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Evolent Health.
Evolent Health Implied Volatility | 1.55 |
Evolent Health's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Evolent Health stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Evolent Health's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Evolent Health stock will not fluctuate a lot when Evolent Health's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Evolent Health to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Evolent because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Evolent Health after-hype prediction price | USD 3.49 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Evolent contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Evolent Health will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0969% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Evolent Health trading at USD 3.23, that is roughly USD 0.003129 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Evolent Health's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Evolent Health options at the current volatility level of 1.55%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Evolent Health Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Evolent Health's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Evolent Health After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Evolent Health at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Evolent Health or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Evolent Health, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Evolent Health Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Evolent Health's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Evolent Health's historical news coverage. Evolent Health's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.17 and 7.89, respectively. We have considered Evolent Health's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Evolent Health is relatively risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Evolent Health is based on 3 months time horizon.
Evolent Health Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Evolent Health is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Evolent Health backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Evolent Health, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.08 | 4.40 | 0.26 | 1.14 | 5 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
3.23 | 3.49 | 8.05 |
|
Evolent Health Hype Timeline
On the 29th of January Evolent Health is traded for 3.23. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.26, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -1.14. Evolent is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 3.49 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 8.05%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -1.08%. The volatility of related hype on Evolent Health is about 416.27%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.09. The current Return On Tangible Assets is estimated to decrease to -0.08. The current Return On Capital Employed is estimated to decrease to -0.02. As of now, Evolent Health's Other Current Assets are increasing as compared to previous years. The Evolent Health's current Intangible Assets is estimated to increase to about 821.3 M, while Non Currrent Assets Other are projected to decrease to under 25.9 M. Evolent Health's management efficiency ratios could be used to measure how well Evolent Health manages its routine affairs as well as how well it operates its assets and liabilities. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Evolent Health Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Evolent Health Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Evolent Health's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Evolent Health's future price movements. Getting to know how Evolent Health's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Evolent Health may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NUTX | Nutex Health | (16.66) | 12 per month | 5.35 | 0.08 | 13.09 | (9.66) | 39.99 | |
| HSTM | HealthStream | 0.17 | 13 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 2.61 | (2.29) | 6.59 | |
| AMN | AMN Healthcare Services | 4.18 | 5 per month | 2.76 | 0.01 | 4.72 | (3.31) | 29.87 | |
| MYGN | Myriad Genetics | 0.18 | 14 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 5.67 | (4.05) | 22.77 | |
| REPL | Replimune Group | (0.09) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 5.56 | (5.32) | 20.44 | |
| AVBP | ArriVent BioPharma Common | (0.17) | 4 per month | 3.15 | 0.09 | 6.71 | (6.03) | 18.12 | |
| MGTX | MeiraGTx Holdings PLC | (0.09) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 5.08 | (5.18) | 14.00 | |
| BFLY | Butterfly Network | (0.10) | 19 per month | 4.57 | 0.16 | 14.22 | (9.14) | 42.22 | |
| PSNL | Personalis | 1.09 | 9 per month | 4.98 | 0.03 | 14.09 | (9.60) | 34.91 | |
| KURA | Kura Oncology | 0.92 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 6.59 | (5.08) | 22.27 |
Evolent Health Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Evolent price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Evolent using various technical indicators. When you analyze Evolent charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Evolent Health Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Evolent Health stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Evolent Health, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Evolent Health based on analysis of Evolent Health hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Evolent Health's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Evolent Health's related companies. | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0156 | 0.014 | 0.007184 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.51 | 0.58 | 0.55 |
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Complementary Tools for Evolent Stock analysis
When running Evolent Health's price analysis, check to measure Evolent Health's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Evolent Health is operating at the current time. Most of Evolent Health's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Evolent Health's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Evolent Health's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Evolent Health to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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