Gafisa Sa Adr Stock Price Patterns
| GFASY Stock | USD 0.14 0.11 311.76% |
Momentum 34
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Gafisa SA hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Gafisa SA ADR from the perspective of Gafisa SA response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Gafisa SA to buy its pink sheet at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Gafisa because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell pink sheets at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Gafisa SA after-hype prediction price | USD 0.14 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Gafisa |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Gafisa SA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Gafisa SA After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Gafisa SA at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Gafisa SA or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Gafisa SA, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Gafisa SA Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Gafisa SA's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Gafisa SA's historical news coverage. Gafisa SA's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.01 and 44.08, respectively. We have considered Gafisa SA's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Gafisa SA is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Gafisa SA ADR is based on 3 months time horizon.
Gafisa SA Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Gafisa SA is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Gafisa SA backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Gafisa SA, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
5.16 | 43.94 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
0.14 | 0.14 | 0.00 |
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Gafisa SA Hype Timeline
Gafisa SA ADR is currently traded for 0.14. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.04. Gafisa is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 5.16%. %. The volatility of related hype on Gafisa SA is about 516941.18%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.10. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.13. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Gafisa SA ADR last dividend was issued on the 30th of December 2022. The entity had 1:9 split on the 11th of October 2022. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next projected press release will be in a few days. Check out Gafisa SA Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Gafisa SA Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Gafisa SA's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Gafisa SA's future price movements. Getting to know how Gafisa SA's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Gafisa SA may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TOYRF | ToysRUs ANZ Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| FXLV | F45 Training Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 34.86 | 0.18 | 700.00 | (87.78) | 9,993 | |
| NFGRF | BeijingWest Industries International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.22 | 34.21 | 0.00 | 90.91 | |
| ALLGF | Alligator Bioscience AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| EPTI | Environmental Packaging Technologies | 0.00 | 2 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| CDTI | CDTi Advanced Materials | 0.00 | 0 per month | 5.51 | 0.01 | 13.64 | (12.00) | 53.92 | |
| ODDAF | Odd Burger | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 14.55 | (16.18) | 62.63 | |
| RNVT | Renovate Neighborhoods | (0.04) | 1 per month | 0.00 | 0.1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 888.89 | |
| FFLO | Free Flow | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 78.50 | |
| DXYN | The Dixie Group | (0.04) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 12.24 | (11.29) | 32.22 |
Gafisa SA Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Gafisa price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Gafisa using various technical indicators. When you analyze Gafisa charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Gafisa SA Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Gafisa SA stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Gafisa SA ADR, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Gafisa SA based on analysis of Gafisa SA hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Gafisa SA's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Gafisa SA's related companies.
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for Gafisa Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Gafisa SA's price analysis, check to measure Gafisa SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Gafisa SA is operating at the current time. Most of Gafisa SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Gafisa SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Gafisa SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Gafisa SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.