First Trust Low Etf Price Prediction
| LMBS Etf | USD 50.12 0.00 0.00% |
Momentum 70
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using First Trust hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of First Trust Low from the perspective of First Trust response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards First Trust using First Trust's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards First using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of First Trust's stock price.
First Trust Implied Volatility | 0.34 |
First Trust's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of First Trust Low stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if First Trust's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that First Trust stock will not fluctuate a lot when First Trust's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in First Trust to buy its etf at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying First because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell etfs at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
First Trust after-hype prediction price | USD 50.1 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current First contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that First Trust Low will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0213% per day over the life of the 2026-02-20 option contract. With First Trust trading at USD 50.12, that is roughly USD 0.0107 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating First Trust's daily price movement you should consider acquiring First Trust Low options at the current volatility level of 0.34%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out First Trust Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. First Trust After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of First Trust at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in First Trust or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of First Trust, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
First Trust Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting First Trust's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on First Trust's historical news coverage. First Trust's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 49.99 and 50.21, respectively. We have considered First Trust's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
First Trust is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of First Trust Low is based on 3 months time horizon.
First Trust Etf Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as First Trust is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading First Trust backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with First Trust, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
50.12 | 50.10 | 0.02 |
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First Trust Hype Timeline
First Trust Low is now traded for 50.12. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. First is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 50.1 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.02%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.03%. The volatility of related hype on First Trust is about 83.97%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 50.12. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out First Trust Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.First Trust Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to First Trust's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict First Trust's future price movements. Getting to know how First Trust's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how First Trust may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| JMBS | Janus Henderson Mortgage Backed | (0.01) | 4 per month | 0.15 | (0.28) | 0.35 | (0.31) | 0.92 | |
| FIASX | Fidelity International Small | 0.43 | 9 per month | 0.31 | 0.13 | 1.03 | (0.85) | 2.06 | |
| FICSX | Fidelity International Small | 0.12 | 1 per month | 0.34 | 0.09 | 1.03 | (0.89) | 2.08 | |
| DFSV | Dimensional ETF Trust | 0.20 | 6 per month | 0.71 | 0.09 | 2.45 | (1.31) | 4.82 | |
| FEYAX | Fidelity Asset Manager | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.58 | 0.06 | 1.03 | (1.18) | 2.82 | |
| FELC | Fidelity Covington Trust | 0.08 | 3 per month | 0.77 | (0.01) | 1.14 | (1.21) | 3.57 | |
| XMHQ | Invesco SP MidCap | (0.25) | 5 per month | 0.81 | (0.02) | 1.74 | (1.42) | 3.44 | |
| BBAX | JPMorgan BetaBuilders Developed | (0.02) | 1 per month | 0.56 | 0.09 | 1.19 | (1.26) | 2.94 | |
| EFAV | iShares MSCI EAFE | 0.33 | 4 per month | 0.26 | 0.04 | 0.88 | (0.76) | 2.53 | |
| DLN | WisdomTree LargeCap Dividend | 0.43 | 1 per month | 0.43 | (0.01) | 0.90 | (0.80) | 2.55 |
First Trust Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine First price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for First using various technical indicators. When you analyze First charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About First Trust Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of First Trust stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as First Trust Low, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of First Trust based on analysis of First Trust hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to First Trust's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to First Trust's related companies.
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Check out First Trust Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..
First Trust Low's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on First's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate First Trust's intrinsic value—its true economic worth—which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. Since First Trust's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Understanding that First Trust's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether First Trust represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. However, First Trust's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.