Medical Properties Trust Stock Price Prediction
| MPW Stock | USD 4.48 0.17 3.94% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
43
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.49) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.04 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.4114 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.3839 | Wall Street Target Price 5.0625 |
Using Medical Properties hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Medical Properties Trust from the perspective of Medical Properties response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Medical Properties Trust Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Medical Properties' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Medical. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Medical can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Medical Properties Trust. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Medical Properties' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Medical Properties.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Medical Properties to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Medical because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Medical Properties after-hype prediction price | USD 4.49 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Medical |
Medical Properties After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Medical Properties at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Medical Properties or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Medical Properties, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Medical Properties Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Medical Properties' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Medical Properties' historical news coverage. Medical Properties' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.47 and 8.51, respectively. We have considered Medical Properties' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Medical Properties is moderately volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Medical Properties Trust is based on 3 months time horizon.
Medical Properties Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Medical Properties is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Medical Properties backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Medical Properties, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 4.08 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 8 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
4.48 | 4.49 | 0.22 |
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Medical Properties Hype Timeline
On the 26th of November Medical Properties Trust is traded for 4.48. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Medical is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 4.49 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price increase on the next news is projected to be 0.22%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.13%. The volatility of related hype on Medical Properties is about 163200.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.48. The company reported the last year's revenue of 871.8 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (558.12 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.54 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Medical Properties Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Medical Properties Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Medical Properties' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Medical Properties' future price movements. Getting to know how Medical Properties' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Medical Properties may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SBRA | Sabra Healthcare REIT | (0.18) | 8 per month | 1.53 | 0.07 | 2.54 | (2.50) | 8.78 | |
| LTC | LTC Properties | (0.27) | 10 per month | 0.89 | 0.03 | 2.10 | (1.87) | 8.30 | |
| DOC | Healthpeak Properties | 0.23 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 2.36 | (2.08) | 6.16 | |
| NHI | National Health Investors | 1.07 | 7 per month | 1.28 | (0.06) | 2.38 | (2.29) | 6.32 | |
| OHI | Omega Healthcare Investors | (0.84) | 10 per month | 1.05 | (0.03) | 1.70 | (1.97) | 5.15 | |
| VTR | Ventas Inc | 0.60 | 10 per month | 1.04 | (0.01) | 1.99 | (1.80) | 5.92 | |
| GMRE | Global Medical REIT | 0.13 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 1.78 | (2.36) | 6.41 | |
| HR | Healthcare Realty Trust | (0.22) | 9 per month | 1.39 | (0.08) | 2.00 | (2.54) | 4.90 | |
| PEAK | PEAK Old | (1.56) | 17 per month | 1.41 | (0.03) | 2.88 | (2.16) | 6.74 | |
| CTRE | CareTrust REIT | 0.57 | 9 per month | 1.29 | (0.03) | 2.06 | (1.45) | 7.20 | |
| CHCT | Community Healthcare Trust | 0.09 | 9 per month | 2.10 | (0.04) | 4.99 | (2.35) | 10.50 | |
| UHT | Universal Health Realty | 0.41 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.24 | (1.93) | 6.11 |
Medical Properties Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Medical price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Medical using various technical indicators. When you analyze Medical charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Medical Properties Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Medical Properties stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Medical Properties Trust, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Medical Properties based on analysis of Medical Properties hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Medical Properties's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Medical Properties's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0462 | 0.1 | 0.21 | 0.22 | Price To Sales Ratio | 9.01 | 4.32 | 3.37 | 3.2 |
Story Coverage note for Medical Properties
The number of cover stories for Medical Properties depends on current market conditions and Medical Properties' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Medical Properties is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Medical Properties' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Medical Properties Short Properties
Medical Properties' future price predictability will typically decrease when Medical Properties' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Medical Properties Trust often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Medical Properties' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Medical Properties' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 598.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 250 M |
Additional Tools for Medical Stock Analysis
When running Medical Properties' price analysis, check to measure Medical Properties' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Medical Properties is operating at the current time. Most of Medical Properties' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Medical Properties' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Medical Properties' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Medical Properties to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.