Ocugen Inc Stock Price Patterns
| OCGN Stock | USD 1.41 0.01 0.70% |
Momentum 44
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.06) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.23) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.24) | Wall Street Target Price 9 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.542 |
Using Ocugen hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ocugen Inc from the perspective of Ocugen response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Ocugen using Ocugen's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Ocugen using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Ocugen's stock price.
Ocugen Short Interest
An investor who is long Ocugen may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Ocugen and may potentially protect profits, hedge Ocugen with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 1.226 | Short Percent 0.1466 | Short Ratio 7.72 | Shares Short Prior Month 47.9 M | 50 Day MA 1.4558 |
Ocugen Inc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Ocugen's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Ocugen. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Ocugen can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Ocugen Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Ocugen's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Ocugen.
Ocugen Implied Volatility | 1.18 |
Ocugen's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Ocugen Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Ocugen's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Ocugen stock will not fluctuate a lot when Ocugen's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Ocugen to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Ocugen because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Ocugen after-hype prediction price | USD 1.42 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Ocugen contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Ocugen Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0738% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Ocugen trading at USD 1.41, that is roughly USD 0.00104 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Ocugen's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Ocugen Inc options at the current volatility level of 1.18%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Ocugen Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Ocugen After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ocugen at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ocugen or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ocugen, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ocugen Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ocugen's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ocugen's historical news coverage. Ocugen's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.07 and 6.48, respectively. We have considered Ocugen's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ocugen is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ocugen Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ocugen Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ocugen is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ocugen backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ocugen, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.44 | 5.06 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1.41 | 1.42 | 0.71 |
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Ocugen Hype Timeline
Ocugen Inc is now traded for 1.41. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Ocugen is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 1.42 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.71%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.44%. The volatility of related hype on Ocugen is about 20240.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.40. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 4.05 M. Net Loss for the year was (54.05 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (32 M). Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Ocugen Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Ocugen Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ocugen's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ocugen's future price movements. Getting to know how Ocugen's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ocugen may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FULC | Fulcrum Therapeutics | 0.83 | 9 per month | 4.00 | 0.09 | 11.56 | (7.75) | 53.80 | |
| LCTX | Lineage Cell Therapeutics | (0.02) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 6.04 | (5.68) | 19.84 | |
| NGNE | Neurogene | (1.84) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 6.59 | (6.83) | 23.85 | |
| NMRA | Neumora Therapeutics | 0.21 | 6 per month | 3.87 | 0.05 | 10.98 | (7.26) | 33.25 | |
| OMER | Omeros | 0.60 | 8 per month | 4.29 | 0.11 | 12.62 | (7.99) | 87.69 | |
| CMPX | Compass Therapeutics | 0.34 | 7 per month | 2.71 | 0.15 | 7.61 | (5.14) | 16.90 | |
| ADCT | ADC Therapeutics SA | (0.22) | 7 per month | 4.32 | (0.01) | 8.49 | (7.06) | 22.84 | |
| LXRX | Lexicon Pharmaceuticals | 0.22 | 7 per month | 5.09 | (0.01) | 9.17 | (7.65) | 38.53 | |
| ALMS | Alumis Inc | (0.33) | 11 per month | 2.82 | 0.23 | 10.41 | (7.19) | 103.99 | |
| RAPT | RAPT Therapeutics | (0.04) | 8 per month | 2.87 | 0.14 | 7.87 | (6.78) | 64.19 |
Ocugen Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ocugen price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ocugen using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ocugen charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Ocugen Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Ocugen stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Ocugen Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Ocugen based on analysis of Ocugen hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Ocugen's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Ocugen's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Current Ratio | 2.51 | 2.86 | 2.57 | Net Debt To EBITDA | 0.5 | 0.49 | 0.57 |
Pair Trading with Ocugen
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Ocugen position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Ocugen will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Ocugen Stock
Moving against Ocugen Stock
| 0.46 | DRMA | Dermata Therapeutics | PairCorr |
| 0.45 | OSE | OSE Pharma SA | PairCorr |
| 0.45 | ABNX | Abionyx Pharma SA | PairCorr |
| 0.43 | ALSEN | Sensorion SA | PairCorr |
| 0.41 | OB3 | OPTIBIOTIX HLTH PLC | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Ocugen could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Ocugen when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Ocugen - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Ocugen Inc to buy it.
The correlation of Ocugen is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Ocugen moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Ocugen Inc moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Ocugen can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Ocugen Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
Will Biotechnology sector continue expanding? Could Ocugen diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ocugen. Anticipated expansion of Ocugen directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Ocugen data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Earnings Share (0.22) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.542 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
Investors evaluate Ocugen Inc using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Ocugen's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Ocugen's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Ocugen's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Ocugen should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, Ocugen's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.