Penske Automotive Group Stock Price Prediction
| PAG Stock | USD 160.50 0.80 0.50% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
29
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.14) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 3.41 | EPS Estimate Current Year 13.511 | EPS Estimate Next Year 14.0579 | Wall Street Target Price 171.2478 |
Using Penske Automotive hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Penske Automotive Group from the perspective of Penske Automotive response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Penske Automotive using Penske Automotive's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Penske using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Penske Automotive's stock price.
Penske Automotive Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Penske Automotive's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Penske. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Penske Automotive stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 156.5523 | Short Percent 0.0556 | Short Ratio 6.55 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.1 M | 50 Day MA 159.5046 |
Penske Automotive Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Penske Automotive's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Penske. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Penske can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Penske Automotive Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Penske Automotive's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Penske Automotive.
Penske Automotive Implied Volatility | 0.4 |
Penske Automotive's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Penske Automotive Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Penske Automotive's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Penske Automotive stock will not fluctuate a lot when Penske Automotive's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Penske Automotive to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Penske because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Penske Automotive after-hype prediction price | USD 160.36 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Penske contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Penske Automotive Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.025% per day over the life of the 2025-02-21 option contract. With Penske Automotive trading at USD 160.5, that is roughly USD 0.0401 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Penske Automotive's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Penske Automotive Group options at the current volatility level of 0.4%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Penske |
Penske Automotive After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Penske Automotive at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Penske Automotive or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Penske Automotive, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Penske Automotive Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Penske Automotive's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Penske Automotive's historical news coverage. Penske Automotive's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 159.01 and 161.71, respectively. We have considered Penske Automotive's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Penske Automotive is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Penske Automotive is based on 3 months time horizon.
Penske Automotive Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Penske Automotive is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Penske Automotive backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Penske Automotive, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 1.35 | 0.14 | 0.08 | 9 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
160.50 | 160.36 | 0.09 |
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Penske Automotive Hype Timeline
On the 18th of January 2025 Penske Automotive is traded for 160.50. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.14, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.08. Penske is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 160.36. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 106.3%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.09%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.11%. The volatility of related hype on Penske Automotive is about 197.37%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 160.58. About 21.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The book value of Penske Automotive was at this time reported as 77.93. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 13.07. Penske Automotive last dividend was issued on the 15th of November 2024. The entity had 2:1 split on the 2nd of June 2006. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Penske Automotive Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Penske Automotive Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Penske Automotive's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Penske Automotive's future price movements. Getting to know how Penske Automotive's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Penske Automotive may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GPI | Group 1 Automotive | 6.25 | 8 per month | 1.18 | 0.18 | 2.86 | (2.48) | 11.29 | |
| LAD | Lithia Motors | 0.76 | 10 per month | 1.22 | 0.13 | 3.06 | (2.43) | 13.82 | |
| AN | AutoNation | (2.59) | 11 per month | 1.37 | 0.1 | 2.67 | (2.31) | 7.41 | |
| ABG | Asbury Automotive Group | (2.04) | 11 per month | 1.35 | 0.08 | 3.07 | (2.34) | 10.57 | |
| SAH | Sonic Automotive | 1.04 | 9 per month | 1.18 | 0.16 | 4.59 | (2.62) | 13.72 |
Penske Automotive Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Penske price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Penske using various technical indicators. When you analyze Penske charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Penske Automotive Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Penske Automotive stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Penske Automotive Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Penske Automotive based on analysis of Penske Automotive hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Penske Automotive's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Penske Automotive's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.018 | 0.0173 | 0.0154 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.31 | 0.37 | 0.35 |
Story Coverage note for Penske Automotive
The number of cover stories for Penske Automotive depends on current market conditions and Penske Automotive's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Penske Automotive is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Penske Automotive's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Penske Automotive Short Properties
Penske Automotive's future price predictability will typically decrease when Penske Automotive's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Penske Automotive Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Penske Automotive's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Penske Automotive's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 68 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 96.4 M |
Complementary Tools for Penske Stock analysis
When running Penske Automotive's price analysis, check to measure Penske Automotive's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Penske Automotive is operating at the current time. Most of Penske Automotive's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Penske Automotive's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Penske Automotive's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Penske Automotive to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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