Refinaria (Brazil) Price Prediction
| RPMG3 Stock | BRL 2.44 0.01 0.41% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
35
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Refinaria hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Refinaria de Petrleos from the perspective of Refinaria response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Refinaria to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Refinaria because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Refinaria after-hype prediction price | BRL 2.44 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Refinaria |
Refinaria After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Refinaria at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Refinaria or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Refinaria, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Refinaria Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Refinaria's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Refinaria's historical news coverage. Refinaria's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.11 and 4.77, respectively. We have considered Refinaria's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Refinaria is unstable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Refinaria de Petrleos is based on 3 months time horizon.
Refinaria Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Refinaria is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Refinaria backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Refinaria, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.23 | 2.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
2.44 | 2.44 | 0.00 |
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Refinaria Hype Timeline
Refinaria de Petrleos is at this time traded for 2.44on Sao Paulo Exchange of Brazil. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Refinaria is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.23%. %. The volatility of related hype on Refinaria is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.44. About 65.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 7.3. Refinaria de Petrleos had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:20 split on the 28th of April 2016. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be within a week. Check out Refinaria Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Refinaria Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Refinaria's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Refinaria's future price movements. Getting to know how Refinaria's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Refinaria may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LUPA3 | Lupatech SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.96 | (3.60) | 17.30 | |
| RCSL4 | Recrusul SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 5.34 | 0.20 | 13.33 | (5.31) | 49.02 | |
| PDGR3 | PDG Realty SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 6.25 | (50.00) | 180.00 | |
| OSXB3 | OSX Brasil SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.34 | 0.05 | 5.54 | (4.22) | 16.05 | |
| PMAM3 | Paranapanema SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 3.96 | (6.84) | 22.68 |
Refinaria Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Refinaria price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Refinaria using various technical indicators. When you analyze Refinaria charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Refinaria Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Refinaria stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Refinaria de Petrleos, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Refinaria based on analysis of Refinaria hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Refinaria's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Refinaria's related companies.
Story Coverage note for Refinaria
The number of cover stories for Refinaria depends on current market conditions and Refinaria's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Refinaria is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Refinaria's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Refinaria Short Properties
Refinaria's future price predictability will typically decrease when Refinaria's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Refinaria de Petrleos often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Refinaria's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Refinaria's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 67.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 13 K |
Additional Tools for Refinaria Stock Analysis
When running Refinaria's price analysis, check to measure Refinaria's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Refinaria is operating at the current time. Most of Refinaria's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Refinaria's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Refinaria's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Refinaria to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.