Marriot Vacations Worldwide Stock Price Prediction

VAC Stock  USD 55.55  1.06  1.87%   
The relative strength index (RSI) of Marriot Vacations' stock price is about 64. This entails that the stock is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Marriot, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 64

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Marriot Vacations' future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Marriot Vacations Worldwide, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Marriot Vacations' stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.827
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
1.6438
EPS Estimate Current Year
6.8904
EPS Estimate Next Year
6.9751
Wall Street Target Price
61.9091
Using Marriot Vacations hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Marriot Vacations Worldwide from the perspective of Marriot Vacations response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Marriot Vacations using Marriot Vacations' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Marriot using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Marriot Vacations' stock price.

Marriot Vacations Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Marriot Vacations' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Marriot. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Marriot Vacations stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA
66.2614
Short Percent
0.0892
Short Ratio
3.8
Shares Short Prior Month
2.5 M
50 Day MA
56.1122

Marriot Vacations Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Marriot Vacations' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Marriot. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Marriot can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Marriot Vacations Worldwide. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Marriot Vacations' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Marriot Vacations.

Marriot Vacations Implied Volatility

    
  0.66  
Marriot Vacations' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Marriot Vacations Worldwide stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Marriot Vacations' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Marriot Vacations stock will not fluctuate a lot when Marriot Vacations' options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Marriot Vacations to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Marriot because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Marriot Vacations after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 55.52  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Marriot contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Marriot Vacations Worldwide will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0413% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Marriot Vacations trading at USD 55.55, that is roughly USD 0.0229 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Marriot Vacations' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Marriot Vacations Worldwide options at the current volatility level of 0.66%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out Marriot Vacations Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
54.4358.7763.11
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
47.9752.3056.64
Details
10 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
56.3461.9168.72
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.281.742.12
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Marriot Vacations. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Marriot Vacations' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Marriot Vacations' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Marriot Vacations.

Marriot Vacations After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Marriot Vacations at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Marriot Vacations or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Marriot Vacations, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Marriot Vacations Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Marriot Vacations' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Marriot Vacations' historical news coverage. Marriot Vacations' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 51.18 and 59.86, respectively. We have considered Marriot Vacations' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
55.55
55.52
After-hype Price
59.86
Upside
Marriot Vacations is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Marriot Vacations is based on 3 months time horizon.

Marriot Vacations Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Marriot Vacations is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Marriot Vacations backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Marriot Vacations, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.17 
4.34
  0.03 
  0.01 
8 Events / Month
8 Events / Month
In about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
55.55
55.52
0.05 
2,170  
Notes

Marriot Vacations Hype Timeline

On the 27th of January Marriot Vacations is traded for 55.55. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Marriot is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 55.52. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.05%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.17%. The volatility of related hype on Marriot Vacations is about 5166.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 55.56. About 93.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 0.81. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. Marriot Vacations has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.48. The entity last dividend was issued on the 24th of December 2025. The firm had 1:2 split on the 9th of July 2010. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days.
Check out Marriot Vacations Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Marriot Vacations Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Marriot Vacations' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Marriot Vacations' future price movements. Getting to know how Marriot Vacations' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Marriot Vacations may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
SBETSharplink Gaming 0.55 11 per month 0.00 (0.13) 7.07 (9.51) 19.15 
PENNPenn National Gaming 0.01 13 per month 0.00 (0.13) 4.41 (4.27) 13.97 
HBIHanesbrands 0.29 18 per month 1.49 (0.02) 2.38 (2.35) 7.22 
CAKEThe Cheesecake Factory(0.79)9 per month 2.28  0.03  4.01 (2.82) 9.56 
FUNSix Flags Entertainment(0.94)9 per month 0.00 (0.07) 5.52 (6.75) 27.50 
SHOOSteven Madden(0.22)9 per month 1.20  0.14  3.54 (2.32) 16.50 
DRVNDriven Brands Holdings 0.29 10 per month 0.00 (0.04) 3.92 (2.87) 9.66 
SAHSonic Automotive 1.06 6 per month 0.00 (0.15) 2.83 (3.19) 16.33 
MCRIMonarch Casino Resort 0.68 8 per month 0.00 (0.16) 1.59 (2.00) 5.01 
OSWOneSpaWorld Holdings(0.09)11 per month 0.00 (0.07) 4.69 (2.86) 10.62 

Marriot Vacations Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Marriot price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Marriot using various technical indicators. When you analyze Marriot charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Marriot Vacations Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Marriot Vacations stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Marriot Vacations Worldwide, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Marriot Vacations based on analysis of Marriot Vacations hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Marriot Vacations's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Marriot Vacations's related companies.
 2023 2024 2025 2026 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.03420.03370.03870.0611
Price To Sales Ratio0.660.640.580.81

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