Xinyuan Real Estate Stock Price Prediction
| XIN Stock | USD 3.51 0.04 1.13% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
51
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 4.927 | Wall Street Target Price 7.16 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.27) |
Using Xinyuan Real hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Xinyuan Real Estate from the perspective of Xinyuan Real response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Xinyuan Real to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Xinyuan because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Xinyuan Real after-hype prediction price | USD 3.35 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Xinyuan |
Xinyuan Real After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Xinyuan Real at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Xinyuan Real or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Xinyuan Real, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Xinyuan Real Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Xinyuan Real's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Xinyuan Real's historical news coverage. Xinyuan Real's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.17 and 12.13, respectively. We have considered Xinyuan Real's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Xinyuan Real is dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Xinyuan Real Estate is based on 3 months time horizon.
Xinyuan Real Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Xinyuan Real is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Xinyuan Real backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Xinyuan Real, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.71 | 8.78 | 0.16 | 0.05 | 5 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
3.51 | 3.35 | 4.56 |
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Xinyuan Real Hype Timeline
On the 22nd of November Xinyuan Real Estate is traded for 3.51. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.16, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.05. Xinyuan is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 3.35. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -4.56%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.71%. The volatility of related hype on Xinyuan Real is about 12770.91%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.46. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 0.64. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. Xinyuan Real Estate recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.58. The entity last dividend was issued on the 17th of December 2020. The firm had 1:10 split on the 28th of November 2022. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Xinyuan Real Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Xinyuan Real Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Xinyuan Real's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Xinyuan Real's future price movements. Getting to know how Xinyuan Real's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Xinyuan Real may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HCDIP | Harbor Custom Development | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.11 | 0.10 | 13.51 | (7.98) | 28.75 | |
| AXR | AMREP | 0.09 | 7 per month | 1.76 | 0.18 | 8.28 | (3.91) | 23.30 | |
| AEI | Alset Ehome International | (0.18) | 3 per month | 6.92 | 0.03 | 17.02 | (13.51) | 52.54 | |
| LSEA | Landsea Homes Corp | (0.26) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 6.12 | (4.24) | 18.86 | |
| HCDI | Harbor Custom Development | (0.08) | 1 per month | 8.40 | 0.01 | 9.93 | (10.00) | 121.44 | |
| BAYP | Bayport International Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| ARL | American Realty Investors | (0.12) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 4.97 | (5.49) | 16.57 | |
| SNLAY | Sino Land Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.38 | (5.35) | 13.44 |
Xinyuan Real Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Xinyuan price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Xinyuan using various technical indicators. When you analyze Xinyuan charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Xinyuan Real Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Xinyuan Real stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Xinyuan Real Estate, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Xinyuan Real based on analysis of Xinyuan Real hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Xinyuan Real's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Xinyuan Real's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.22 | 0.19 | 0.2 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.0228 | 0.018 | 0.0171 |
Story Coverage note for Xinyuan Real
The number of cover stories for Xinyuan Real depends on current market conditions and Xinyuan Real's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Xinyuan Real is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Xinyuan Real's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Xinyuan Real Short Properties
Xinyuan Real's future price predictability will typically decrease when Xinyuan Real's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Xinyuan Real Estate often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Xinyuan Real's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Xinyuan Real's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 134.7 M |
Check out Xinyuan Real Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.
Is Real Estate Management & Development space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Xinyuan Real. If investors know Xinyuan will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Xinyuan Real listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 4.927 | Earnings Share 6.58 | Revenue Per Share 150.905 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.27) | Return On Assets 0.0052 |
The market value of Xinyuan Real Estate is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Xinyuan that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Xinyuan Real's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Xinyuan Real's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Xinyuan Real's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Xinyuan Real's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Xinyuan Real's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Xinyuan Real is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Xinyuan Real's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.