Allison Transmission Holdings Stock Beneish M Score

ALSN Stock  USD 118.85  0.74  0.63%   
This module uses fundamental data of Allison Transmission to approximate the value of its Beneish M Score. Allison Transmission M Score tells investors if the company management is likely to be manipulating earnings. The score is calculated using eight financial indicators that are adjusted by a specific multiplier. Please note, the M Score is a probabilistic model and cannot detect companies that manipulate their earnings with 100% accuracy. Check out Allison Transmission Piotroski F Score and Allison Transmission Altman Z Score analysis.
  
At this time, Allison Transmission's Debt Ratio is very stable compared to the past year. At this time, Allison Transmission's Free Cash Flow Per Share is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 22nd of November 2024, Inventory Turnover is likely to grow to 7.71, while Dividend Yield is likely to drop 0.01.
At this time, it appears that Allison Transmission is an unlikely manipulator. The earnings manipulation may begin if Allison Transmission's top management creates an artificial sense of financial success, forcing the stock price to be traded at a high price-earnings multiple than it should be. In general, excessive earnings management by Allison Transmission executives may lead to removing some of the operating profits from subsequent periods to inflate earnings in the following periods. This way, the manipulation of Allison Transmission's earnings can lead to misrepresentations of actual financial condition, taking the otherwise loyal stakeholders on to the path of questionable ethical practices and plain fraud.
-2.93
Beneish M Score - Unlikely Manipulator
Elasticity of Receivables

0.91

Focus
Asset Quality

1.09

Focus
Expense Coverage

0.93

Focus
Gross Margin Strengs

0.78

Focus
Accruals Factor

0.93

Focus
Depreciation Resistance

0.86

Focus
Net Sales Growth

0.83

Focus
Financial Leverage Condition

1.27

Focus

Allison Transmission Beneish M-Score Indicator Trends

The cure to earnings manipulation is the transparency of financial reporting. It will typically remove the temptation of the top executives to inflate earnings (i.e., to promote the idea of 'winning at any cost'). Because a healthy internal audit department can enhance transparency, the board should promote the auditors' access to all the record-keeping systems across the enterprise. For example, if Allison Transmission's auditors report directly to the board (not management), the managers will be reluctant to manipulate simply due to the fear of punishment. On the other hand, the auditors will be free to investigate the ledgers properly because they know that the board has their back.
Current ValueLast YearChange From Last Year 10 Year Trend
Net Receivables269.4 M356 M
Way Down
Slightly volatile
Total Revenue2.5 BB
Significantly Down
Slightly volatile
Total Assets3.7 BB
Way Down
Slightly volatile
Total Current Assets787.6 M1.2 B
Way Down
Slightly volatile
Non Current Assets Total3.1 B3.8 B
Significantly Down
Slightly volatile
Property Plant Equipment628.9 M877.5 M
Way Down
Slightly volatile
Depreciation And Amortization132.3 M154 M
Fairly Down
Slightly volatile
Selling General Administrative280.3 M362 M
Significantly Down
Slightly volatile
Total Current Liabilities447.5 M501 M
Moderately Down
Slightly volatile
Non Current Liabilities Total3.5 B3.3 B
Notably Up
Pretty Stable
Net Debt1.9 BB
Sufficiently Down
Slightly volatile
Short Term Debt11.9 MM
Significantly Up
Slightly volatile
Long Term Debt2.1 B2.3 B
Notably Down
Slightly volatile
Operating Income631.6 M919 M
Way Down
Slightly volatile
Total Cash From Operating Activities667.8 M784 M
Fairly Down
Slightly volatile
Gross Profit Margin0.380.4843
Significantly Down
Pretty Stable

Allison Transmission Beneish M-Score Driver Matrix

One of the toughest challenges investors face today is learning how to quickly synthesize historical financial statements and information provided by the company, SEC reporting, and various external parties in order to detect the potential manipulation of earnings. Understanding the correlation between Allison Transmission's different financial indicators related to revenue, expenses, operating profit, and net earnings helps investors identify and prioritize their investing strategies towards Allison Transmission in a much-optimized way. Analyzing correlations between earnings drivers directly associated with dollar figures is the most effective way to find Allison Transmission's degree of accounting gimmicks and manipulations.

About Allison Transmission Beneish M Score

M-Score is one of many grading techniques for value stocks. It was developed by Professor M. Daniel Beneish of the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University and published in 1999 under the paper titled The Detection of Earnings Manipulation. The Beneish score is a multi-factor model that utilizes financial identifiers to compile eight variables used to classify whether a company has manipulated its reported earnings. The variables are built from the officially filed financial statements to create a final score call 'M Score.' The score helps to identify companies that are likely to manipulate their profits if they show deteriorating gross margins, operating expenses, and leverage against growing revenue.

Depreciation And Amortization

132.34 Million

At this time, Allison Transmission's Depreciation And Amortization is very stable compared to the past year.

Allison Transmission Earnings Manipulation Drivers

Although earnings manipulation is typically not the result of intentional misconduct by the c-level executives, it is still a widespread practice by the senior management of public companies such as Allison Transmission. It is usually done by a series of misrepresentations of various accounting rules and operating activities across multiple financial cycles. The best way to spot the manipulation is to examine the historical financial statement to find inconsistencies in earning reports to find trends in assets or liabilities that are not sustainable in the future.
201920202021202220232024 (projected)
Net Receivables253M228M301M363M356M269.4M
Total Revenue2.7B2.1B2.4B2.8B3.0B2.5B
Total Assets4.5B4.5B4.5B4.7B5.0B3.7B
Total Current Assets686M756M671M866M1.3B787.6M
Net Debt2.3B2.2B2.4B2.3B2.0B1.9B
Long Term Debt2.5B2.5B2.5B2.5B2.3B2.1B
Operating Income892M382M669M608M919M631.6M
Investments(3M)(1M)(111M)(41M)(161M)(153.0M)

Allison Transmission ESG Sustainability

Some studies have found that companies with high sustainability scores are getting higher valuations than competitors with lower social-engagement activities. While most ESG disclosures are voluntary and do not directly affect the long term financial condition, Allison Transmission's sustainability indicators can be used to identify proper investment strategies using environmental, social, and governance scores that are crucial to Allison Transmission's managers, analysts, and investors.
Environmental
Governance
Social

About Allison Transmission Fundamental Analysis

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Allison Transmission Holdings's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Allison Transmission using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Allison Transmission Holdings based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.

Pair Trading with Allison Transmission

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Allison Transmission position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Allison Transmission will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Allison Stock

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The ability to find closely correlated positions to Allison Transmission could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Allison Transmission when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Allison Transmission - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Allison Transmission Holdings to buy it.
The correlation of Allison Transmission is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Allison Transmission moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Allison Transmission moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Allison Transmission can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Allison Transmission offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Allison Transmission's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Allison Transmission Holdings Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Allison Transmission Holdings Stock:
Check out Allison Transmission Piotroski F Score and Allison Transmission Altman Z Score analysis.
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Is Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Allison Transmission. If investors know Allison will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Allison Transmission listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
1.17
Dividend Share
0.98
Earnings Share
8.19
Revenue Per Share
36.828
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.204
The market value of Allison Transmission is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Allison that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Allison Transmission's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Allison Transmission's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Allison Transmission's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Allison Transmission's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Allison Transmission's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Allison Transmission is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Allison Transmission's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.