Arcos Dorados Holdings Stock Probability Of Bankruptcy
| ARCO Stock | USD 8.43 0.03 0.36% |
Arcos | Probability Of Bankruptcy |
Arcos Dorados Holdings Company odds of distress Analysis
Arcos Dorados' Probability Of Bankruptcy is a relative measure of the likelihood of financial distress. For stocks, the Probability Of Bankruptcy is the normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs, it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within the next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100, indicating the firm's actual probability it will be financially distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.
More About Probability Of Bankruptcy | All Equity Analysis
Probability Of Bankruptcy | = | Normalized | | Z-Score |
Current Arcos Dorados Probability Of Bankruptcy | Less than 28% |
Most of Arcos Dorados' fundamental indicators, such as Probability Of Bankruptcy, are part of a valuation analysis module that helps investors searching for stocks that are currently trading at higher or lower prices than their real value. If the real value is higher than the market price, Arcos Dorados Holdings is considered to be undervalued, and we provide a buy recommendation. Otherwise, we render a sell signal.
Our calculation of Arcos Dorados probability of bankruptcy is based on Altman Z-Score and Piotroski F-Score, but not limited to these measures. To be applied to a broader range of industries and markets, we use several other techniques to enhance the accuracy of predicting Arcos Dorados odds of financial distress. These include financial statement analysis, different types of price predictions, earning estimates, analysis consensus, and basic intrinsic valuation. Please use the options below to get a better understanding of different measures that drive the calculation of Arcos Dorados Holdings financial health.
Is Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Arcos Dorados. If investors know Arcos will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Arcos Dorados listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.08) | Earnings Share 0.69 | Revenue Per Share 21.328 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.068 | Return On Assets 0.0693 |
The market value of Arcos Dorados Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Arcos that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Arcos Dorados' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Arcos Dorados' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Arcos Dorados' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Arcos Dorados' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Arcos Dorados' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Arcos Dorados is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Arcos Dorados' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Arcos Probability Of Bankruptcy Driver Correlations
Understanding the fundamental principles of building solid financial models for Arcos Dorados is extremely important. It helps to project a fair market value of Arcos Stock properly, considering its historical fundamentals such as Probability Of Bankruptcy. Since Arcos Dorados' main accounts across its financial reports are all linked and dependent on each other, it is essential to analyze all possible correlations between related accounts. However, instead of reviewing all of Arcos Dorados' historical financial statements, investors can examine the correlated drivers to determine its overall health. This can be effectively done using a conventional correlation matrix of Arcos Dorados' interrelated accounts and indicators.
Click cells to compare fundamentals
The Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12, or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty meeting its current financial obligations towards its creditors or delivering on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions daily from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns, including short-term and long-term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenue patterns, R&D expenses, and commitments, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.
| Competition |
Based on the latest financial disclosure, Arcos Dorados Holdings has a Probability Of Bankruptcy of 28.0%. This is 32.35% lower than that of the Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure sector and 14.74% lower than that of the Consumer Discretionary industry. The probability of bankruptcy for all United States stocks is 29.7% higher than that of the company.
Arcos Probability Of Bankruptcy Peer Comparison
Stock peer comparison is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It analyses Arcos Dorados' direct or indirect competition against its Probability Of Bankruptcy to detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics or determine the stocks which would be a good addition to a portfolio. Peer analysis of Arcos Dorados could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Arcos Dorados by comparing valuation metrics of similar companies.Arcos Dorados is currently under evaluation in probability of bankruptcy category among its peers.
Arcos Dorados Main Bankruptcy Drivers
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Return On Assets | 0.0312 | (0.0651) | 0.0193 | 0.0532 | 0.06 | 0.063 | |
| Net Debt | 1.4B | 1.4B | 1.3B | 1.3B | 1.5B | 828.1M | |
| Total Current Liabilities | 595.4M | 503.5M | 617.9M | 759.4M | 841.7M | 653.7M | |
| Non Current Liabilities Total | 1.5B | 1.6B | 1.5B | 1.6B | 1.7B | 1.1B | |
| Total Assets | 2.6B | 2.3B | 2.4B | 2.6B | 3.0B | 2.2B | |
| Total Current Assets | 405.4M | 415.5M | 540.1M | 684.4M | 605.3M | 575.1M | |
| Total Cash From Operating Activities | 223.5M | 16.0M | 258.0M | 345.4M | 382.0M | 238.4M |
Arcos Dorados ESG Sustainability
Some studies have found that companies with high sustainability scores are getting higher valuations than competitors with lower social-engagement activities. While most ESG disclosures are voluntary and do not directly affect the long term financial condition, Arcos Dorados' sustainability indicators can be used to identify proper investment strategies using environmental, social, and governance scores that are crucial to Arcos Dorados' managers, analysts, and investors.Environmental | Governance | Social |
Arcos Fundamentals
| Return On Equity | 0.39 | ||||
| Return On Asset | 0.0693 | ||||
| Profit Margin | 0.04 % | ||||
| Operating Margin | 0.07 % | ||||
| Current Valuation | 3.36 B | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 130.66 M | ||||
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 3.12 % | ||||
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 45.19 % | ||||
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 4.52 M | ||||
| Price To Earning | 11.52 X | ||||
| Price To Book | 3.45 X | ||||
| Price To Sales | 0.39 X | ||||
| Revenue | 4.33 B | ||||
| Gross Profit | 492.61 M | ||||
| EBITDA | 455.98 M | ||||
| Net Income | 181.27 M | ||||
| Cash And Equivalents | 289.42 M | ||||
| Cash Per Share | 1.37 X | ||||
| Total Debt | 1.71 B | ||||
| Debt To Equity | 7.40 % | ||||
| Current Ratio | 0.86 X | ||||
| Book Value Per Share | 2.45 X | ||||
| Cash Flow From Operations | 381.96 M | ||||
| Short Ratio | 3.59 X | ||||
| Earnings Per Share | 0.69 X | ||||
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 2.15 X | ||||
| Target Price | 13.13 | ||||
| Beta | 1.16 | ||||
| Market Capitalization | 1.77 B | ||||
| Total Asset | 3.02 B | ||||
| Retained Earnings | 566.19 M | ||||
| Working Capital | (236.39 M) | ||||
| Current Asset | 379 M | ||||
| Current Liabilities | 577.67 M | ||||
| Annual Yield | 0.03 % | ||||
| Net Asset | 3.02 B |
About Arcos Dorados Fundamental Analysis
The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Arcos Dorados Holdings's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Arcos Dorados using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Arcos Dorados Holdings based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
Pair Trading with Arcos Dorados
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Arcos Dorados position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Arcos Dorados will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Arcos Stock
| 0.52 | LNW | Light Wonder | PairCorr |
| 0.44 | DNUT | Krispy Kreme Sell-off Trend | PairCorr |
| 0.31 | BROS | Dutch Bros | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Arcos Dorados could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Arcos Dorados when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Arcos Dorados - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Arcos Dorados Holdings to buy it.
The correlation of Arcos Dorados is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Arcos Dorados moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Arcos Dorados Holdings moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Arcos Dorados can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Arcos Dorados Piotroski F Score and Arcos Dorados Altman Z Score analysis. You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
Is Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Arcos Dorados. If investors know Arcos will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Arcos Dorados listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.08) | Earnings Share 0.69 | Revenue Per Share 21.328 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.068 | Return On Assets 0.0693 |
The market value of Arcos Dorados Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Arcos that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Arcos Dorados' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Arcos Dorados' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Arcos Dorados' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Arcos Dorados' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Arcos Dorados' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Arcos Dorados is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Arcos Dorados' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.