Mesa Air Group Stock Beneish M Score

MESA Stock  USD 0.87  0.01  1.16%   
This module uses fundamental data of Mesa Air to approximate the value of its Beneish M Score. Mesa Air M Score tells investors if the company management is likely to be manipulating earnings. The score is calculated using eight financial indicators that are adjusted by a specific multiplier. Please note, the M Score is a probabilistic model and cannot detect companies that manipulate their earnings with 100% accuracy. Check out Mesa Air Piotroski F Score and Mesa Air Altman Z Score analysis.
  
At present, Mesa Air's Long Term Debt is projected to decrease significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Long Term Debt Total is expected to grow to about 529.1 M, whereas Short and Long Term Debt Total is forecasted to decline to about 493.7 M. At present, Mesa Air's PTB Ratio is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Book Value Per Share is expected to grow to 5.87, whereas Price To Sales Ratio is forecasted to decline to 0.07.
At this time, it appears that Mesa Air Group is an unlikely manipulator. The earnings manipulation may begin if Mesa Air's top management creates an artificial sense of financial success, forcing the stock price to be traded at a high price-earnings multiple than it should be. In general, excessive earnings management by Mesa Air executives may lead to removing some of the operating profits from subsequent periods to inflate earnings in the following periods. This way, the manipulation of Mesa Air's earnings can lead to misrepresentations of actual financial condition, taking the otherwise loyal stakeholders on to the path of questionable ethical practices and plain fraud.
-2.36
Beneish M Score - Unlikely Manipulator
Elasticity of Receivables

0.82

Focus
Asset Quality

2.07

Focus
Expense Coverage

0.84

Focus
Gross Margin Strengs

0.95

Focus
Accruals Factor

0.84

Focus
Depreciation Resistance

1.01

Focus
Net Sales Growth

1.15

Focus
Financial Leverage Condition

0.79

Focus

Mesa Air Beneish M-Score Indicator Trends

The cure to earnings manipulation is the transparency of financial reporting. It will typically remove the temptation of the top executives to inflate earnings (i.e., to promote the idea of 'winning at any cost'). Because a healthy internal audit department can enhance transparency, the board should promote the auditors' access to all the record-keeping systems across the enterprise. For example, if Mesa Air's auditors report directly to the board (not management), the managers will be reluctant to manipulate simply due to the fear of punishment. On the other hand, the auditors will be free to investigate the ledgers properly because they know that the board has their back.
Current ValueLast YearChange From Last Year 10 Year Trend
Net Receivables7.1 M7.4 M
Notably Down
Very volatile
Total Revenue659.6 M572.8 M
Fairly Up
Slightly volatile
Total Assets884.1 MB
Fairly Down
Pretty Stable
Total Current Assets219.8 M159.4 M
Significantly Up
Slightly volatile
Non Current Assets Total664.3 M873.9 M
Way Down
Very volatile
Property Plant Equipment1.2 B1.1 B
Notably Up
Pretty Stable
Selling General Administrative42.5 M43.9 M
Sufficiently Down
Pretty Stable
Total Current Liabilities184.9 M308.1 M
Way Down
Slightly volatile
Non Current Liabilities Total478.3 M495.1 M
Sufficiently Down
Pretty Stable
Net Debt421.8 M584.3 M
Way Down
Pretty Stable
Short Term Debt99.5 M192.2 M
Way Down
Slightly volatile
Long Term Debt478.1 M328.3 M
Way Up
Slightly volatile
Long Term Investments20 M23.4 M
Fairly Down
Pretty Stable

Mesa Air Group Beneish M-Score Driver Matrix

One of the toughest challenges investors face today is learning how to quickly synthesize historical financial statements and information provided by the company, SEC reporting, and various external parties in order to detect the potential manipulation of earnings. Understanding the correlation between Mesa Air's different financial indicators related to revenue, expenses, operating profit, and net earnings helps investors identify and prioritize their investing strategies towards Mesa Air in a much-optimized way. Analyzing correlations between earnings drivers directly associated with dollar figures is the most effective way to find Mesa Air's degree of accounting gimmicks and manipulations.

About Mesa Air Beneish M Score

M-Score is one of many grading techniques for value stocks. It was developed by Professor M. Daniel Beneish of the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University and published in 1999 under the paper titled The Detection of Earnings Manipulation. The Beneish score is a multi-factor model that utilizes financial identifiers to compile eight variables used to classify whether a company has manipulated its reported earnings. The variables are built from the officially filed financial statements to create a final score call 'M Score.' The score helps to identify companies that are likely to manipulate their profits if they show deteriorating gross margins, operating expenses, and leverage against growing revenue.

Depreciation And Amortization

72.88 Million

At present, Mesa Air's Depreciation And Amortization is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting.

Mesa Air Earnings Manipulation Drivers

Although earnings manipulation is typically not the result of intentional misconduct by the c-level executives, it is still a widespread practice by the senior management of public companies such as Mesa Air. It is usually done by a series of misrepresentations of various accounting rules and operating activities across multiple financial cycles. The best way to spot the manipulation is to examine the historical financial statement to find inconsistencies in earning reports to find trends in assets or liabilities that are not sustainable in the future.
201920202021202220232024 (projected)
Net Receivables13.7M3.2M4.0M8.3M7.4M7.1M
Total Revenue545.1M503.6M531.0M498.1M572.8M659.6M
Total Assets1.5B1.5B1.1B898.5M1.0B884.1M
Total Current Assets155.6M158.4M98.3M138.6M159.4M219.8M
Net Debt738.8M597.5M576.0M508.1M584.3M421.8M
Short Term Debt277.1M180.3M131.8M167.2M192.2M99.5M
Long Term Debt542.5M539.7M502.5M364.7M328.3M478.1M
Operating Income(1.2M)(14.4M)(17.7M)(84.3M)(97.0M)(92.1M)
Investments(26.7M)(10M)1.4M142.3M163.6M171.8M
Gross Profit Margin0.0891(0.003813)0.06320.03030.03490.0331

About Mesa Air Fundamental Analysis

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Mesa Air Group's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Mesa Air using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Mesa Air Group based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.

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When determining whether Mesa Air Group offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Mesa Air's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Mesa Air Group Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Mesa Air Group Stock:
Check out Mesa Air Piotroski F Score and Mesa Air Altman Z Score analysis.
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Is Passenger Airlines space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Mesa Air. If investors know Mesa will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Mesa Air listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.136
Earnings Share
(2.30)
Revenue Per Share
11.589
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.03)
Return On Assets
(0.01)
The market value of Mesa Air Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Mesa that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Mesa Air's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Mesa Air's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Mesa Air's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Mesa Air's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Mesa Air's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Mesa Air is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Mesa Air's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.