Organigram Holdings Stock Probability Of Bankruptcy
| OGI Stock | CAD 2.14 0.01 0.47% |
OrganiGram | Probability Of Bankruptcy |
OrganiGram Holdings Company odds of distress Analysis
OrganiGram Holdings' Probability Of Bankruptcy is a relative measure of the likelihood of financial distress. For stocks, the Probability Of Bankruptcy is the normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs, it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within the next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100, indicating the firm's actual probability it will be financially distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.
More About Probability Of Bankruptcy | All Equity Analysis
Probability Of Bankruptcy | = | Normalized | | Z-Score |
Current OrganiGram Holdings Probability Of Bankruptcy | Less than 22% |
Most of OrganiGram Holdings' fundamental indicators, such as Probability Of Bankruptcy, are part of a valuation analysis module that helps investors searching for stocks that are currently trading at higher or lower prices than their real value. If the real value is higher than the market price, OrganiGram Holdings is considered to be undervalued, and we provide a buy recommendation. Otherwise, we render a sell signal.
Our calculation of OrganiGram Holdings probability of bankruptcy is based on Altman Z-Score and Piotroski F-Score, but not limited to these measures. To be applied to a broader range of industries and markets, we use several other techniques to enhance the accuracy of predicting OrganiGram Holdings odds of financial distress. These include financial statement analysis, different types of price predictions, earning estimates, analysis consensus, and basic intrinsic valuation. Please use the options below to get a better understanding of different measures that drive the calculation of OrganiGram Holdings financial health.
OrganiGram Probability Of Bankruptcy Driver Correlations
Understanding the fundamental principles of building solid financial models for OrganiGram Holdings is extremely important. It helps to project a fair market value of OrganiGram Stock properly, considering its historical fundamentals such as Probability Of Bankruptcy. Since OrganiGram Holdings' main accounts across its financial reports are all linked and dependent on each other, it is essential to analyze all possible correlations between related accounts. However, instead of reviewing all of OrganiGram Holdings' historical financial statements, investors can examine the correlated drivers to determine its overall health. This can be effectively done using a conventional correlation matrix of OrganiGram Holdings' interrelated accounts and indicators.
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The Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12, or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty meeting its current financial obligations towards its creditors or delivering on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions daily from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns, including short-term and long-term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenue patterns, R&D expenses, and commitments, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.
| Competition |
Based on the latest financial disclosure, OrganiGram Holdings has a Probability Of Bankruptcy of 22.0%. This is 49.18% lower than that of the Pharmaceuticals sector and significantly higher than that of the Health Care industry. The probability of bankruptcy for all Canada stocks is 44.77% higher than that of the company.
OrganiGram Probability Of Bankruptcy Peer Comparison
Stock peer comparison is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It analyses OrganiGram Holdings' direct or indirect competition against its Probability Of Bankruptcy to detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics or determine the stocks which would be a good addition to a portfolio. Peer analysis of OrganiGram Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing OrganiGram Holdings by comparing valuation metrics of similar companies.OrganiGram Holdings is currently under evaluation in probability of bankruptcy category among its peers.
OrganiGram Holdings Main Bankruptcy Drivers
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Net Debt | 79.1M | (50.4M) | (65.2M) | (29.1M) | (26.2M) | (24.9M) | |
| Total Current Liabilities | 29.1M | 26.3M | 55.3M | 22.4M | 25.8M | 18.3M | |
| Non Current Liabilities Total | 89.0M | 47.9M | 13.8M | 4.4M | 5.1M | 4.8M | |
| Total Assets | 417.6M | 554.0M | 577.1M | 298.5M | 343.2M | 251.2M | |
| Total Current Assets | 170.2M | 260.6M | 221.6M | 156.0M | 179.4M | 119.0M | |
| Total Cash From Operating Activities | (45.1M) | (28.6M) | (36.2M) | (35.8M) | (32.2M) | (30.6M) |
OrganiGram Fundamentals
| Return On Equity | -0.55 | ||||
| Return On Asset | -0.0556 | ||||
| Profit Margin | (1.54) % | ||||
| Operating Margin | (0.12) % | ||||
| Current Valuation | 150.76 M | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 108.57 M | ||||
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 31.32 % | ||||
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 9.71 % | ||||
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 519.71 K | ||||
| Price To Book | 0.78 X | ||||
| Price To Sales | 1.55 X | ||||
| Revenue | 149.21 M | ||||
| Gross Profit | 31.57 M | ||||
| EBITDA | (207.62 M) | ||||
| Net Income | (229.48 M) | ||||
| Cash And Equivalents | 44.78 M | ||||
| Cash Per Share | 0.23 X | ||||
| Total Debt | 4.72 M | ||||
| Debt To Equity | 0.28 % | ||||
| Current Ratio | 5.15 X | ||||
| Book Value Per Share | 2.85 X | ||||
| Cash Flow From Operations | (35.8 M) | ||||
| Short Ratio | 2.92 X | ||||
| Earnings Per Share | (2.51) X | ||||
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 0.04 X | ||||
| Target Price | 3.56 | ||||
| Number Of Employees | 914 | ||||
| Beta | 1.13 | ||||
| Market Capitalization | 231.26 M | ||||
| Total Asset | 298.45 M | ||||
| Retained Earnings | (538.53 M) | ||||
| Working Capital | 166.34 M | ||||
| Net Asset | 298.45 M |
About OrganiGram Holdings Fundamental Analysis
The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze OrganiGram Holdings's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of OrganiGram Holdings using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of OrganiGram Holdings based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
Pair Trading with OrganiGram Holdings
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if OrganiGram Holdings position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in OrganiGram Holdings will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against OrganiGram Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to OrganiGram Holdings could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace OrganiGram Holdings when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back OrganiGram Holdings - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling OrganiGram Holdings to buy it.
The correlation of OrganiGram Holdings is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as OrganiGram Holdings moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if OrganiGram Holdings moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for OrganiGram Holdings can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Your Equity Center to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in OrganiGram Holdings. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors. To learn how to invest in OrganiGram Stock, please use our How to Invest in OrganiGram Holdings guide.You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.