Is Exagen Stock a Good Investment?

Exagen Investment Advice

XGN

To provide specific investment advice or recommendations on Exagen Inc stock, we recommend investors consider the following general factors when evaluating Exagen Inc. This will help you to make an informed decision on whether to include Exagen in one of your diversified portfolios:

Examine Exagen's financial health by looking at its balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement. Analyze key financial ratios, such as Price-to-Earnings (P/E), Price-to-Sales (P/S), and Price-to-Book (P/B), to determine whether the stock is fairly valued or over/undervalued.
Research Exagen's leadership team and their track record. Good management can help Exagen navigate difficult times and make strategic decisions that benefit shareholders and increases its net worth.
Consider the overall health of the Biotechnology space and any emerging trends that could impact Exagen's business and its evolving consumer preferences.
Compare Exagen's performance and market position to its competitors. Analyze how Exagen is positioned in terms of product offerings, innovation, and market share.
Check if Exagen pays a dividend and its dividend yield and payout ratio.
Review what financial analysts are saying about Exagen's stock and their price targets. However, remember that analysts' opinions can vary, and their predictions may not always be accurate.

It's important to note that investing in Exagen Inc stock, carries risks, and you should carefully consider your investment goals and risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. Also, remember that it's important for investors to have a long-term perspective and a well-diversified portfolio to manage the impact of stock market volatility on their investments. Below is a detailed guide on how to decide if Exagen Inc is a good investment.

Sell

Buy

Strong Sell

We provide trade advice to complement the prevailing expert consensus on Exagen Inc. Our dynamic recommendation engine uses a multidimensional algorithm to analyze the company's potential to grow using all technical and fundamental data available at the time. To make sure Exagen is not overpriced, please confirm all Exagen Inc fundamentals, including its shares owned by institutions, total debt, market capitalization, as well as the relationship between the gross profit and short ratio . Given that Exagen Inc has a number of shares shorted of 52.21 K, we urge you to verify Exagen Inc market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your prevailing risk tolerance and investing horizon.

Market Performance	OK	Details
Volatility	Very risky	Details
Hype Condition	Stale	Details
Current Valuation	Overvalued	Details
Odds Of Distress	High	Details
Economic Sensitivity	Almost neglects market trends	Details
Investor Sentiment	Interested	Details
Analyst Consensus	Strong Buy	Details
Financial Leverage	Not Rated	Details
Reporting Quality (M-Score)	Unavailable	Details

Examine Exagen Stock

Researching Exagen's stock involves analyzing various aspects of the company and its industry to make an informed investment decision. The key areas to focus on are fundamentals, business model and competitive advantage. It is also important to analyze trends in revenue, net income, and cash flow, as well as key financial ratios, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S), and debt-to-equity (D/E). About 30.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.94. Exagen Inc had not issued any dividends in recent years.

To determine if Exagen is a good investment, evaluating the company's potential for future growth is also very important. This may include expanding into new markets, launching new products or services, or improving operational efficiency. Companies with strong growth prospects can be more attractive investments. This aspect of the research should be conducted in the context of the overall market and industry in which the company operates and should include an analysis of growth potential, competitive landscape, and any regulatory or economic factors that could impact the business. Some of the essential points regarding Exagen's research are outlined below:

	Exagen Inc is way too risky over 90 days horizon
	Exagen Inc appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues
	Exagen Inc has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years
	The company reported the last year's revenue of 52.55 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (23.69 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 21.35 M.
	Exagen Inc has about 76.39 M in cash with (14.46 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 4.7, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow.
	Roughly 57.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors
	Latest headline from simplywall.st: Exagen CEO, President Director Acquires 7.7 percent More Stock

Exagen Quarterly Cost Of Revenue

5.53 Million

Exagen uses earnings reports to provide investors with an update of all three financial statements, including the income statement, the balance sheet, and the cash flow statement. Therefore, it is also crucial when considering investing in Exagen Inc. Every quarterly earnings report provides investors with an overview of sales, expenses, and net income for the most recent period. It also may provide a comparison to Exagen's previous reporting period. The quarterly earnings reports are usually disseminated to the public via Form 10-Q, which is a legal document filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission every quarter.

	18th of March 2024 Upcoming Quarterly Report	View
	20th of May 2024 Next Financial Report	View
	31st of December 2023 Next Fiscal Quarter End	View
	18th of March 2024 Next Fiscal Year End	View
	30th of September 2023 Last Quarter Report	View
	31st of December 2022 Last Financial Announcement	View

Earnings surprises can significantly impact Exagen's stock price both in the short term and over time. Negative earnings surprises usually result in a price decline. However, it has been seen that positive earnings surprises lead to an immediate rise in a stock's price and a gradual increase over time. This is why we often hear news about some companies beating earning projections. Financial analysts spend a large amount of time predicting earnings per share (EPS) along with other important future indicators. Many analysts use forecasting models, management guidance, and additional fundamental information to derive an EPS estimate. Below are the table of largest EPS Surprises Exagen's investors have experienced.

Reported	Fiscal Date	Estimated EPS	Reported EPS	Surprise
2020-05-11	2020-03-31	-0.49	-0.44	0.05	10
2021-08-09	2021-06-30	-0.44	-0.38	0.06	13
2022-03-22	2021-12-31	-0.5	-0.42	0.08	16
2020-03-25	2019-12-31	-0.37	-0.27	0.1	27
2024-03-18	2023-12-31	-0.43	-0.31	0.12	27
2023-05-15	2023-03-31	-0.56	-0.44	0.12	21
2020-11-10	2020-09-30	-0.47	-0.34	0.13	27
2021-03-16	2020-12-31	-0.41	-0.27	0.14	34

Know Exagen's Top Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Exagen is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Exagen Inc backward and forwards among themselves. Exagen's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Exagen's securities or originate loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.

		Shares
Kennedy Capital Management Inc	2024-06-30	76.5 K
Palumbo Wealth Management Llc	2024-09-30	76.4 K
Penbrook Management Llc	2024-09-30	63 K
Ubs Group Ag	2024-06-30	62.5 K
Blackrock Inc	2024-06-30	43.6 K
Dimensional Fund Advisors, Inc.	2024-09-30	29.8 K
State Street Corp	2024-06-30	27.7 K
Citadel Advisors Llc	2024-06-30	25.4 K
Prudential Financial Inc	2024-09-30	21.8 K
Rtw Investments, Llc	2024-06-30	1.5 M
Morgan Stanley - Brokerage Accounts	2024-06-30	964.8 K

Note, although Exagen's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Exagen's market capitalization trends

The company currently falls under 'Micro-Cap' category with a total capitalization of 69.14 M.

Market Cap

34.81 Million

Exagen's profitablity analysis

	Last Reported	Projected for Next Year
Return On Tangible Assets	(0.42)	(0.44)
Return On Capital Employed	(0.51)	(0.53)
Return On Assets	(0.42)	(0.44)
Return On Equity	(1.04)	(1.10)

The company has Net Profit Margin of (0.31) %, which means that it does not effectively control expenditures or properly executes on its pricing strategies. This is way below average. In the same way, it shows Net Operating Margin of (0.17) %, which entails that for every $100 of revenue, it lost $0.17.

Determining Exagen's profitability involves analyzing its financial statements and using various financial metrics to determine if Exagen is a good buy. For example, gross profit margin measures Exagen's profitability after accounting for the cost of goods sold, while net profit margin measures profitability after accounting for all expenses. Other important metrics include return on assets, return on equity, and free cash flow. By reviewing multiple sources and metrics, you can gain a complete picture of Exagen's profitability and make more informed investment decisions.

Evaluate Exagen's management efficiency

Exagen Inc has Return on Asset of (0.1741) % which means that on every $100 spent on assets, it lost $0.1741. This is way below average. In the same way, it shows a return on shareholders' equity (ROE) of (0.6997) %, meaning that it generated no profit with money invested by stockholders. Exagen's management efficiency ratios could be used to measure how well Exagen manages its routine affairs as well as how well it operates its assets and liabilities. As of the 22nd of November 2024, Return On Tangible Assets is likely to drop to -0.44. In addition to that, Return On Capital Employed is likely to drop to -0.53. At this time, Exagen's Non Current Assets Total are very stable compared to the past year. As of the 22nd of November 2024, Intangible Assets is likely to grow to about 6.6 M, while Total Assets are likely to drop about 54.2 M.

	Last Reported	Projected for Next Year
Book Value Per Share	1.28	1.35
Tangible Book Value Per Share	1.28	1.35
Enterprise Value Over EBITDA	(1.17)	(1.23)
Price Book Value Ratio	1.55	1.18
Enterprise Value Multiple	(1.17)	(1.23)
Price Fair Value	1.55	1.18
Enterprise Value	22.4 M	27.9 M

At Exagen Inc, effective management practices are pivotal to sustaining long-term profitability. We delve into financial metrics and market conditions to provide a comprehensive analysis of the stock's prospects.

Beta

1.346

Basic technical analysis of Exagen Stock

As of the 22nd of November, Exagen shows the Mean Deviation of 3.69, downside deviation of 3.67, and Semi Deviation of 3.39. In respect to fundamental indicators, the technical analysis model provides you with a way to check existing technical drivers of Exagen, as well as the relationship between them.

Exagen's insider trading activities

Some recent studies suggest that insider trading raises the cost of capital for securities issuers and decreases overall economic growth. Trading by specific Exagen insiders, such as employees or executives, is commonly permitted as long as it does not rely on Exagen's material information that is not in the public domain. Local jurisdictions usually require such trading to be reported in order to monitor insider transactions. In many U.S. states, trading conducted by corporate officers, key employees, directors, or significant shareholders must be reported to the regulator or publicly disclosed, usually within a few business days of the trade. In these cases Exagen insiders are required to file a Form 4 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) when buying or selling shares of their own companies.

		Birk Brian over three weeks ago Acquisition by Birk Brian of 9000 shares of Exagen subject to Rule 16b-3
		Hunt Holdings Limited Partnership over two months ago Disposition of 30000 shares by Hunt Holdings Limited Partnership of Exagen at 16.133 subject to Rule 16b-3
		Black Jeffrey G. over two months ago Acquisition by Black Jeffrey G. of 225000 shares of Exagen subject to Rule 16b-3
		Stokes Frank over three months ago Insider Trading
		Adawi Kamal over six months ago Disposition of 9297 shares by Adawi Kamal of Exagen at 1.9089 subject to Rule 16b-3
		Adawi Kamal over six months ago Disposition of 3487 shares by Adawi Kamal of Exagen at 1.9099 subject to Rule 16b-3
		John Aballi over six months ago Acquisition by John Aballi of 175000 shares of Exagen subject to Rule 16b-3
		Tullis James L L over a year ago Exagen exotic insider transaction detected
		Tullis James L L over a year ago Purchase by Tullis James L L of 167 shares of Exagen

Exagen's Outstanding Corporate Bonds

Exagen issues bonds to finance its operations. Corporate bonds make up one of the largest components of the U.S. bond market, which is considered the world's largest securities market. Exagen Inc uses the proceeds from bond sales for a wide variety of purposes, including financing ongoing mergers and acquisitions, buying new equipment, investing in research and development, buying back their own stock, paying dividends to shareholders, and even refinancing existing debt. Most Exagen bonds can be classified according to their maturity, which is the date when Exagen Inc has to pay back the principal to investors. Maturities can be short-term, medium-term, or long-term (more than ten years). Longer-term bonds usually offer higher interest rates but may entail additional risks.

	Boeing Co 2196 Corp Bond US097023DG73	View
	HSBC Holdings PLC Corp Bond US404280DR76	View
	US30063PAB13 Corp Bond US30063PAB13	View
	US30063PAC95 Corp Bond US30063PAC95	View

View All Exagen Corporate Bonds

Understand Exagen's technical and predictive indicators

Using predictive indicators to make investment decisions involves analyzing Exagen's various financial and market-based factors to help forecast future trends and identify investment opportunities. Select the indicators that are most relevant to your investment strategy. Each indicator has its own strengths and weaknesses, so it's essential to combine multiple indicators to get a more comprehensive view of the market and reduce the risk of making poor decisions based on limited data.

	Risk Adjusted Performance	0.0816
	Market Risk Adjusted Performance	0.4767
	Mean Deviation	3.69
	Semi Deviation	3.39
	Downside Deviation	3.67
	Coefficient Of Variation	1043.14
	Standard Deviation	5.18
	Variance	26.86
	Information Ratio	0.0747
	Jensen Alpha	0.3831
	Total Risk Alpha	(0.19)
	Sortino Ratio	0.1056
	Treynor Ratio	0.4667
	Maximum Drawdown	24.12
	Value At Risk	(6.46)
	Potential Upside	9.62
	Downside Variance	13.45
	Semi Variance	11.52
	Expected Short fall	(4.84)
	Skewness	1.52
	Kurtosis	3.72

	Risk Adjusted Performance	0.0816
	Market Risk Adjusted Performance	0.4767
	Mean Deviation	3.69
	Semi Deviation	3.39
	Downside Deviation	3.67
	Coefficient Of Variation	1043.14
	Standard Deviation	5.18
	Variance	26.86
	Information Ratio	0.0747
	Jensen Alpha	0.3831
	Total Risk Alpha	(0.19)
	Sortino Ratio	0.1056
	Treynor Ratio	0.4667
	Maximum Drawdown	24.12
	Value At Risk	(6.46)
	Potential Upside	9.62
	Downside Variance	13.45
	Semi Variance	11.52
	Expected Short fall	(4.84)
	Skewness	1.52
	Kurtosis	3.72

Consider Exagen's intraday indicators

Exagen intraday indicators are useful technical analysis tools used by many experienced traders. Just like the conventional technical analysis, daily indicators help intraday investors to analyze the price movement with the timing of Exagen stock daily movement. By combining multiple daily indicators into a single trading strategy, you can limit your risk while still earning strong returns on your managed positions.

	Accumulation Distribution	13508.16
	Daily Balance Of Power	0.36
	Rate Of Daily Change	1.05
	Day Median Price	4.16
	Day Typical Price	4.14
	Price Action Indicator	0.03
	Period Momentum Indicator	0.18

Exagen Corporate Filings

F4	19th of November 2024 The report filed by a party regarding the acquisition or disposition of a company's common stock, as well as derivative securities such as options, warrants, and convertible securities	View Verify
10Q	12th of November 2024 Quarterly performance report mandated by Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), to be filed by publicly traded corporations	View Verify
8K	5th of August 2024 Report filed with the SEC to announce major events that shareholders should know about	View Verify
F3	14th of June 2024 The report used by insiders such as officers, directors, and major shareholders (beneficial owners holding more than 10% of any class of the company's equity securities) to declare their ownership of a company's stock	View Verify

Exagen time-series forecasting models is one of many Exagen's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Exagen's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Exagen Stock media impact

Far too much social signal, news, headlines, and media speculation about Exagen that are available to investors today. That information is available publicly through Exagen media outlets and privately through word of mouth or via Exagen internal channels. However, regardless of the origin, that massive amount of Exagen data is challenging to quantify into actionable patterns, especially for investors that are not very sophisticated with ever-evolving tools and techniques used in the investment management field.

A primary focus of Exagen news analysis is to determine if its current price reflects all relevant headlines and social signals impacting the current market conditions. A news analyst typically looks at the history of Exagen relative headlines and hype rather than examining external drivers such as technical or fundamental data. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned thinking related to Exagen's headlines and news coverage data. This data is often completely overlooked or insufficiently analyzed for actionable insights to drive Exagen alpha.

Exagen Sentiment by Major News Outlets

Investor sentiment, mood or attitude towards Exagen can have a significant impact on its stock price or the market as a whole. This sentiment can be positive or negative, and various factors, such as economic indicators, news events, or market trends, can influence it. When investor sentiment is positive, investors are more likely to buy stocks, increasing demand and increasing the stock price. Positive investor sentiment can be driven by good news about the company or the broader market, such as solid earnings reports or positive economic data.

Note that negative investor sentiment can cause investors to sell stocks, leading to a decrease in demand and a drop in the stock price. Negative sentiment can be driven by factors such as poor earnings reports, negative news about the company or industry, or broader economic concerns. It's important to note that investor sentiment is just one of many factors that can affect stock prices. Other factors, such as company performance, industry trends, and global economic conditions, can also play a significant role in determining the value of a stock.

Exagen Corporate Management

Jeffrey Black	Chief Officer	Profile
Debra Zack	Chief Officer	Profile
John Wegener	Senior Marketing	Profile
Ryan Douglas	Investors Officer	Profile
Mark Hazeltine	Chief Officer	Profile
MingChou Lee	Chief Officer	Profile

Already Invested in Exagen Inc?

The danger of trading Exagen Inc is mainly related to its market volatility and Company specific events. As an investor, you must understand the concept of risk-adjusted return before you start trading. The most common way to measure the risk of Exagen is by using the Sharpe ratio. The ratio expresses how much excess return you acquire for the extra volatility you endure for holding a more risker asset than Exagen. The Sharpe ratio is calculated by using standard deviation and excess return to determine reward per unit of risk. To understand how volatile Exagen Inc is, you must compare it to a benchmark. Traditionally, the risk-free rate of return is the rate of return on the shortest-dated U.S. Treasury, such as a 3-year bond.

When determining whether Exagen Inc offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Exagen's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Exagen Inc Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Exagen Inc Stock: