Hershey's market value is the price at which a share of Hershey trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Hershey Co investors about its performance. Hershey is selling for under 160.09 as of the 13th of January 2025; that is 0.55% down since the beginning of the trading day. The stock's lowest day price was 159.81. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Hershey Co and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Hershey over a given investment horizon. Check out Hershey Correlation, Hershey Volatility and Hershey Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Hershey.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Hershey's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Hershey is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Hershey's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Hershey 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Hershey's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Hershey.
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Hershey's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Hershey Co upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Hershey's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Hershey's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Hershey historical prices to predict the future Hershey's volatility.
Hershey holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of -0.0854, which attests that the entity had a -0.0854% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Hershey exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check out Hershey's Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 1.38, standard deviation of 2.17, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.07) to validate the risk estimate we provide. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of -0.15, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Hershey are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Hershey is likely to outperform the market. At this point, Hershey has a negative expected return of -0.19%. Please make sure to check out Hershey's treynor ratio, value at risk, and the relationship between the total risk alpha and maximum drawdown , to decide if Hershey performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation
0.54
Modest predictability
Hershey Co has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Hershey time series from 14th of December 2024 to 29th of December 2024 and 29th of December 2024 to 13th of January 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Hershey price movement. The serial correlation of 0.54 indicates that about 54.0% of current Hershey price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient
0.54
Spearman Rank Test
0.43
Residual Average
0.0
Price Variance
13.68
Hershey lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Hershey stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Hershey's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Hershey returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Hershey has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values
Timeline
Hershey regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Hershey stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Hershey stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Hershey stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices
Timeline
Hershey Lagged Returns
When evaluating Hershey's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Hershey stock have on its future price. Hershey autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Hershey autocorrelation shows the relationship between Hershey stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Hershey Co.
Regressed Prices
Timeline
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
When running Hershey's price analysis, check to measure Hershey's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Hershey is operating at the current time. Most of Hershey's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Hershey's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Hershey's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Hershey to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.