First Hotel (Taiwan) Market Value
| 2706 Stock | TWD 14.90 0.05 0.34% |
| Symbol | First |
First Hotel 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to First Hotel's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of First Hotel.
| 08/28/2024 |
| 11/26/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in First Hotel on August 28, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding First Hotel Co or generate 0.0% return on investment in First Hotel over 90 days. First Hotel is related to or competes with Leofoo Development, Hotel Holiday, Shin Shin, Hung Sheng, and Les Enphants. The companys hotel consists of executive, business, ADA, and meeting rooms, as well as suites, fitness center, gift shop... More
First Hotel Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure First Hotel's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess First Hotel Co upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.25) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 2.96 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.00) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.9934 |
First Hotel Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for First Hotel's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as First Hotel's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use First Hotel historical prices to predict the future First Hotel's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.04) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.04) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.14) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.87) |
First Hotel Backtested Returns
First Hotel secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.03, which denotes the company had a -0.03% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. First Hotel Co exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm First Hotel's Variance of 0.4055, mean deviation of 0.4228, and Standard Deviation of 0.6368 to check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.044, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, First Hotel's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding First Hotel is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, First Hotel has a negative expected return of -0.0191%. Please make sure to confirm First Hotel's treynor ratio, value at risk, and the relationship between the total risk alpha and maximum drawdown , to decide if First Hotel performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.2 |
Insignificant reverse predictability
First Hotel Co has insignificant reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between First Hotel time series from 28th of August 2024 to 12th of October 2024 and 12th of October 2024 to 26th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of First Hotel price movement. The serial correlation of -0.2 indicates that over 20.0% of current First Hotel price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.2 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.09 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.02 |
First Hotel lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is First Hotel stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting First Hotel's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of First Hotel returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that First Hotel has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
First Hotel regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If First Hotel stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if First Hotel stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in First Hotel stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
First Hotel Lagged Returns
When evaluating First Hotel's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of First Hotel stock have on its future price. First Hotel autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, First Hotel autocorrelation shows the relationship between First Hotel stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in First Hotel Co.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for First Stock Analysis
When running First Hotel's price analysis, check to measure First Hotel's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Hotel is operating at the current time. Most of First Hotel's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Hotel's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Hotel's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Hotel to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.