Fastly (Germany) Market Value
| 2Y7 Stock | 7.44 0.25 3.25% |
| Symbol | Fastly |
Fastly 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Fastly's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Fastly.
| 10/28/2024 |
| 11/27/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Fastly on October 28, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Fastly Inc or generate 0.0% return on investment in Fastly over 30 days. Fastly is related to or competes with Superior Plus, NMI Holdings, Origin Agritech, SIVERS SEMICONDUCTORS, Talanx AG, NorAm Drilling, and Identiv. More
Fastly Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Fastly's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Fastly Inc upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 3.19 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1138 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 17.26 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.98) | |||
| Potential Upside | 6.19 |
Fastly Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Fastly's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Fastly's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Fastly historical prices to predict the future Fastly's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1205 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2695 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.04) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1372 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.2301 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fastly's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Fastly Inc Backtested Returns
Fastly appears to be slightly risky, given 3 months investment horizon. Fastly Inc secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.15, which denotes the company had a 0.15% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By reviewing Fastly's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.56% is justified by implied risk. Please utilize Fastly's Mean Deviation of 2.81, coefficient of variation of 679.16, and Downside Deviation of 3.19 to check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Fastly holds a performance score of 11. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 2.42, which means a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Fastly will likely underperform. Please check Fastly's standard deviation, treynor ratio, downside variance, as well as the relationship between the total risk alpha and value at risk , to make a quick decision on whether Fastly's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.63 |
Good predictability
Fastly Inc has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Fastly time series from 28th of October 2024 to 12th of November 2024 and 12th of November 2024 to 27th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Fastly Inc price movement. The serial correlation of 0.63 indicates that roughly 63.0% of current Fastly price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.63 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.59 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.37 |
Fastly Inc lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Fastly stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Fastly's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Fastly returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Fastly has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Fastly regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Fastly stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Fastly stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Fastly stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Fastly Lagged Returns
When evaluating Fastly's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Fastly stock have on its future price. Fastly autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Fastly autocorrelation shows the relationship between Fastly stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Fastly Inc.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Additional Tools for Fastly Stock Analysis
When running Fastly's price analysis, check to measure Fastly's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Fastly is operating at the current time. Most of Fastly's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Fastly's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Fastly's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Fastly to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.