BTG Hotels' market value is the price at which a share of BTG Hotels trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of BTG Hotels Group investors about its performance. BTG Hotels is trading at 13.35 as of the 1st of February 2025, a 0.07 percent decrease since the beginning of the trading day. The stock's open price was 13.36. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of BTG Hotels Group and determine expected loss or profit from investing in BTG Hotels over a given investment horizon. Check out BTG Hotels Correlation, BTG Hotels Volatility and BTG Hotels Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on BTG Hotels.
Please note, there is a significant difference between BTG Hotels' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if BTG Hotels is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, BTG Hotels' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
BTG Hotels 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to BTG Hotels' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of BTG Hotels.
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure BTG Hotels' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess BTG Hotels Group upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for BTG Hotels' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as BTG Hotels' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use BTG Hotels historical prices to predict the future BTG Hotels' volatility.
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as BTG Hotels. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against BTG Hotels' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, BTG Hotels' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in BTG Hotels Group.
BTG Hotels Group Backtested Returns
BTG Hotels Group secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.05, which signifies that the company had a -0.05 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. BTG Hotels Group exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm BTG Hotels' Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.04), standard deviation of 1.92, and Mean Deviation of 1.32 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.0222, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning BTG Hotels are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, BTG Hotels is likely to outperform the market. At this point, BTG Hotels Group has a negative expected return of -0.0959%. Please make sure to confirm BTG Hotels' coefficient of variation, jensen alpha, and the relationship between the mean deviation and standard deviation , to decide if BTG Hotels Group performance from the past will be repeated in the future.
Auto-correlation
-0.43
Modest reverse predictability
BTG Hotels Group has modest reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between BTG Hotels time series from 7th of February 2024 to 5th of August 2024 and 5th of August 2024 to 1st of February 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of BTG Hotels Group price movement. The serial correlation of -0.43 indicates that just about 43.0% of current BTG Hotels price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient
-0.43
Spearman Rank Test
-0.69
Residual Average
0.0
Price Variance
1.75
BTG Hotels Group lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is BTG Hotels stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting BTG Hotels' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of BTG Hotels returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that BTG Hotels has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values
Timeline
BTG Hotels regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If BTG Hotels stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if BTG Hotels stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in BTG Hotels stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices
Timeline
BTG Hotels Lagged Returns
When evaluating BTG Hotels' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of BTG Hotels stock have on its future price. BTG Hotels autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, BTG Hotels autocorrelation shows the relationship between BTG Hotels stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in BTG Hotels Group.
BTG Hotels financial ratios help investors to determine whether BTG Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in BTG with respect to the benefits of owning BTG Hotels security.