Guangzhou Automobile (China) Market Value
| 601238 Stock | 8.53 0.25 2.85% |
| Symbol | Guangzhou |
Guangzhou Automobile 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Guangzhou Automobile's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Guangzhou Automobile.
| 02/01/2024 |
| 11/27/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Guangzhou Automobile on February 1, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Guangzhou Automobile Group or generate 0.0% return on investment in Guangzhou Automobile over 300 days. Guangzhou Automobile is related to or competes with Agricultural Bank, Industrial, Bank of China, China Construction, PetroChina, Industrial Bank, and China Life. Guangzhou Automobile is entity of China. It is traded as Stock on SHG exchange. More
Guangzhou Automobile Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Guangzhou Automobile's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Guangzhou Automobile Group upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.35 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0389 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 15.37 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.68) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.68 |
Guangzhou Automobile Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Guangzhou Automobile's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Guangzhou Automobile's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Guangzhou Automobile historical prices to predict the future Guangzhou Automobile's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0782 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2597 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.16) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0395 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.56) |
Guangzhou Automobile Backtested Returns
Guangzhou Automobile appears to be somewhat reliable, given 3 months investment horizon. Guangzhou Automobile holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.12, which attests that the entity had a 0.12% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Guangzhou Automobile, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please utilize Guangzhou Automobile's risk adjusted performance of 0.0782, and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.55) to validate if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Guangzhou Automobile holds a performance score of 9. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of -0.38, which attests to possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Guangzhou Automobile are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Guangzhou Automobile is likely to outperform the market. Please check Guangzhou Automobile's downside deviation, standard deviation, and the relationship between the semi deviation and coefficient of variation , to make a quick decision on whether Guangzhou Automobile's current trending patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.58 |
Good reverse predictability
Guangzhou Automobile Group has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Guangzhou Automobile time series from 1st of February 2024 to 30th of June 2024 and 30th of June 2024 to 27th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Guangzhou Automobile price movement. The serial correlation of -0.58 indicates that roughly 58.0% of current Guangzhou Automobile price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.58 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.15 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.27 |
Guangzhou Automobile lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Guangzhou Automobile stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Guangzhou Automobile's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Guangzhou Automobile returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Guangzhou Automobile has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Guangzhou Automobile regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Guangzhou Automobile stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Guangzhou Automobile stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Guangzhou Automobile stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Guangzhou Automobile Lagged Returns
When evaluating Guangzhou Automobile's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Guangzhou Automobile stock have on its future price. Guangzhou Automobile autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Guangzhou Automobile autocorrelation shows the relationship between Guangzhou Automobile stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Guangzhou Automobile Group.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Other Information on Investing in Guangzhou Stock
Guangzhou Automobile financial ratios help investors to determine whether Guangzhou Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Guangzhou with respect to the benefits of owning Guangzhou Automobile security.