Hefei Metalforming (China) Market Value
| 603011 Stock | 7.66 0.42 5.20% |
| Symbol | Hefei |
Hefei Metalforming 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Hefei Metalforming's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Hefei Metalforming.
| 10/28/2024 |
| 11/27/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Hefei Metalforming on October 28, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Hefei Metalforming Mach or generate 0.0% return on investment in Hefei Metalforming over 30 days. Hefei Metalforming is related to or competes with Biwin Storage, PetroChina, Industrial, China Construction, China Petroleum, Agricultural Bank, and Bank of China. Hefei Metalforming is entity of China. It is traded as Stock on SHG exchange. More
Hefei Metalforming Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Hefei Metalforming's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Hefei Metalforming Mach upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 3.38 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1291 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 18.58 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.44) | |||
| Potential Upside | 6.16 |
Hefei Metalforming Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Hefei Metalforming's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Hefei Metalforming's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Hefei Metalforming historical prices to predict the future Hefei Metalforming's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.134 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.6567 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0253 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1364 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.90) |
Hefei Metalforming Mach Backtested Returns
Hefei Metalforming appears to be slightly risky, given 3 months investment horizon. Hefei Metalforming Mach holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.17, which attests that the entity had a 0.17% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By evaluating Hefei Metalforming's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.65% is justified by implied risk. Please utilize Hefei Metalforming's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.134, market risk adjusted performance of (0.89), and Downside Deviation of 3.38 to validate if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Hefei Metalforming holds a performance score of 13. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of -0.65, which attests to possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Hefei Metalforming are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Hefei Metalforming is likely to outperform the market. Please check Hefei Metalforming's market risk adjusted performance, semi deviation, coefficient of variation, as well as the relationship between the mean deviation and downside deviation , to make a quick decision on whether Hefei Metalforming's current trending patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.18 |
Very weak predictability
Hefei Metalforming Mach has very weak predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Hefei Metalforming time series from 28th of October 2024 to 12th of November 2024 and 12th of November 2024 to 27th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Hefei Metalforming Mach price movement. The serial correlation of 0.18 indicates that over 18.0% of current Hefei Metalforming price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.18 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.04 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.2 |
Hefei Metalforming Mach lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Hefei Metalforming stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Hefei Metalforming's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Hefei Metalforming returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Hefei Metalforming has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Hefei Metalforming regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Hefei Metalforming stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Hefei Metalforming stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Hefei Metalforming stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Hefei Metalforming Lagged Returns
When evaluating Hefei Metalforming's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Hefei Metalforming stock have on its future price. Hefei Metalforming autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Hefei Metalforming autocorrelation shows the relationship between Hefei Metalforming stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Hefei Metalforming Mach.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Other Information on Investing in Hefei Stock
Hefei Metalforming financial ratios help investors to determine whether Hefei Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Hefei with respect to the benefits of owning Hefei Metalforming security.