FIRST NATIONAL (Germany) Market Value
| 63Z Stock | EUR 30.60 1.40 4.79% |
| Symbol | FIRST |
FIRST NATIONAL 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to FIRST NATIONAL's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of FIRST NATIONAL.
| 10/29/2024 |
| 11/28/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in FIRST NATIONAL on October 29, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding FIRST NATIONAL FIN or generate 0.0% return on investment in FIRST NATIONAL over 30 days. FIRST NATIONAL is related to or competes with Superior Plus, NMI Holdings, SIVERS SEMICONDUCTORS, Talanx AG, 2G ENERGY, Identiv, and INTUITIVE SURGICAL. First National Financial Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, originates, underwrites, and services residential ... More
FIRST NATIONAL Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure FIRST NATIONAL's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess FIRST NATIONAL FIN upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.94 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1063 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 9.06 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.04) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.55 |
FIRST NATIONAL Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for FIRST NATIONAL's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as FIRST NATIONAL's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use FIRST NATIONAL historical prices to predict the future FIRST NATIONAL's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1382 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.3151 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0316 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1037 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 25.53 |
FIRST NATIONAL FIN Backtested Returns
FIRST NATIONAL appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. FIRST NATIONAL FIN secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.17, which denotes the company had a 0.17% return per unit of volatility over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for FIRST NATIONAL FIN, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please utilize FIRST NATIONAL's Mean Deviation of 1.44, market risk adjusted performance of 25.54, and Downside Deviation of 1.94 to check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, FIRST NATIONAL holds a performance score of 13. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.0124, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, FIRST NATIONAL's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding FIRST NATIONAL is expected to be smaller as well. Please check FIRST NATIONAL's standard deviation, total risk alpha, treynor ratio, as well as the relationship between the jensen alpha and sortino ratio , to make a quick decision on whether FIRST NATIONAL's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.76 |
Good predictability
FIRST NATIONAL FIN has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between FIRST NATIONAL time series from 29th of October 2024 to 13th of November 2024 and 13th of November 2024 to 28th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of FIRST NATIONAL FIN price movement. The serial correlation of 0.76 indicates that around 76.0% of current FIRST NATIONAL price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.76 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.49 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.37 |
FIRST NATIONAL FIN lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is FIRST NATIONAL stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting FIRST NATIONAL's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of FIRST NATIONAL returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that FIRST NATIONAL has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
FIRST NATIONAL regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If FIRST NATIONAL stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if FIRST NATIONAL stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in FIRST NATIONAL stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
FIRST NATIONAL Lagged Returns
When evaluating FIRST NATIONAL's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of FIRST NATIONAL stock have on its future price. FIRST NATIONAL autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, FIRST NATIONAL autocorrelation shows the relationship between FIRST NATIONAL stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in FIRST NATIONAL FIN.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Other Information on Investing in FIRST Stock
FIRST NATIONAL financial ratios help investors to determine whether FIRST Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in FIRST with respect to the benefits of owning FIRST NATIONAL security.