AvalonBay Communities (Brazil) Market Value
| A1VB34 Stock | BRL 339.24 3.84 1.12% |
| Symbol | AvalonBay |
AvalonBay Communities 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to AvalonBay Communities' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of AvalonBay Communities.
| 07/01/2024 |
| 12/28/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in AvalonBay Communities on July 1, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding AvalonBay Communities or generate 0.0% return on investment in AvalonBay Communities over 180 days. AvalonBay Communities is related to or competes with Equity Residential, Mid America, Sun Communities, and Essex Property. As of December 31, 2020, the Company owned or held a direct or indirect ownership interest in 291 apartment communities ... More
AvalonBay Communities Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure AvalonBay Communities' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess AvalonBay Communities upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.07 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0604 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 10.06 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.16) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.34 |
AvalonBay Communities Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for AvalonBay Communities' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as AvalonBay Communities' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use AvalonBay Communities historical prices to predict the future AvalonBay Communities' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.068 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1403 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0804 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0522 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.28) |
AvalonBay Communities Backtested Returns
At this point, AvalonBay Communities is very steady. AvalonBay Communities secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.11, which signifies that the company had a 0.11% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for AvalonBay Communities, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm AvalonBay Communities' mean deviation of 1.18, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.068 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.19%. AvalonBay Communities has a performance score of 8 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.46, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning AvalonBay Communities are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, AvalonBay Communities is likely to outperform the market. AvalonBay Communities right now shows a risk of 1.74%. Please confirm AvalonBay Communities semi deviation, coefficient of variation, and the relationship between the mean deviation and downside deviation , to decide if AvalonBay Communities will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | 0.81 |
Very good predictability
AvalonBay Communities has very good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between AvalonBay Communities time series from 1st of July 2024 to 29th of September 2024 and 29th of September 2024 to 28th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of AvalonBay Communities price movement. The serial correlation of 0.81 indicates that around 81.0% of current AvalonBay Communities price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.81 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.79 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 264.21 |
AvalonBay Communities lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is AvalonBay Communities stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting AvalonBay Communities' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of AvalonBay Communities returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that AvalonBay Communities has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
AvalonBay Communities regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If AvalonBay Communities stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if AvalonBay Communities stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in AvalonBay Communities stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
AvalonBay Communities Lagged Returns
When evaluating AvalonBay Communities' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of AvalonBay Communities stock have on its future price. AvalonBay Communities autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, AvalonBay Communities autocorrelation shows the relationship between AvalonBay Communities stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in AvalonBay Communities.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Information and Resources on Investing in AvalonBay Stock
When determining whether AvalonBay Communities offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of AvalonBay Communities' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Avalonbay Communities Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Avalonbay Communities Stock:Check out AvalonBay Communities Correlation, AvalonBay Communities Volatility and AvalonBay Communities Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on AvalonBay Communities. For information on how to trade AvalonBay Stock refer to our How to Trade AvalonBay Stock guide.You can also try the Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.
AvalonBay Communities technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.