AIB Group (Ireland) Market Value
| A5G Stock | EUR 5.20 0.15 2.80% |
| Symbol | AIB |
AIB Group 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to AIB Group's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of AIB Group.
| 10/27/2024 |
| 11/26/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in AIB Group on October 27, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding AIB Group PLC or generate 0.0% return on investment in AIB Group over 30 days. AIB Group is related to or competes with Kingspan Group, Glanbia PLC, and Ryanair Holdings. AIB Group plc provides banking and financial products and services to retail, business, and corporate customers More
AIB Group Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure AIB Group's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess AIB Group PLC upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.89 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.05) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 8.53 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.14) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.68 |
AIB Group Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for AIB Group's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as AIB Group's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use AIB Group historical prices to predict the future AIB Group's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0212 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.04) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.27) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.05) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0498 |
AIB Group PLC Backtested Returns
AIB Group PLC retains Efficiency (Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0115, which signifies that the company had a -0.0115% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. AIB Group exposes twenty-nine different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm AIB Group's market risk adjusted performance of 0.0598, and Coefficient Of Variation of 5044.63 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm owns a Beta (Systematic Risk) of 0.56, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, AIB Group's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding AIB Group is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, AIB Group PLC has a negative expected return of -0.0226%. Please make sure to confirm AIB Group's semi deviation, coefficient of variation, and the relationship between the mean deviation and downside deviation , to decide if AIB Group PLC performance from the past will be repeated at some future date.
Auto-correlation | 0.08 |
Virtually no predictability
AIB Group PLC has virtually no predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between AIB Group time series from 27th of October 2024 to 11th of November 2024 and 11th of November 2024 to 26th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of AIB Group PLC price movement. The serial correlation of 0.08 indicates that barely 8.0% of current AIB Group price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.08 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.06 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.01 |
AIB Group PLC lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is AIB Group stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting AIB Group's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of AIB Group returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that AIB Group has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
AIB Group regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If AIB Group stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if AIB Group stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in AIB Group stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
AIB Group Lagged Returns
When evaluating AIB Group's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of AIB Group stock have on its future price. AIB Group autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, AIB Group autocorrelation shows the relationship between AIB Group stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in AIB Group PLC.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with AIB Group
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if AIB Group position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in AIB Group will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against AIB Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to AIB Group could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace AIB Group when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back AIB Group - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling AIB Group PLC to buy it.
The correlation of AIB Group is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as AIB Group moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if AIB Group PLC moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for AIB Group can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for AIB Stock Analysis
When running AIB Group's price analysis, check to measure AIB Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AIB Group is operating at the current time. Most of AIB Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AIB Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AIB Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AIB Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.