Cavanal Hill Ultra Fund Market Value
| AAUSX Fund | USD 10.01 0.01 0.10% |
| Symbol | Cavanal |
Cavanal Hill 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Cavanal Hill's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Cavanal Hill.
| 08/28/2024 |
| 11/26/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Cavanal Hill on August 28, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Cavanal Hill Ultra or generate 0.0% return on investment in Cavanal Hill over 90 days. Cavanal Hill is related to or competes with Bond Fund, Strategic Enhanced, Cavanal Hill, Limited Duration, Cavanal Hill, World Energy, and Bond Fund. The fund invests in a diversified portfolio of municipal bonds and debentures More
Cavanal Hill Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Cavanal Hill's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Cavanal Hill Ultra upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (2.14) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 0.4013 | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.1002 |
Cavanal Hill Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Cavanal Hill's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Cavanal Hill's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Cavanal Hill historical prices to predict the future Cavanal Hill's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0189 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0015 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.01) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.09) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cavanal Hill's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Cavanal Hill Ultra Backtested Returns
At this stage we consider Cavanal Mutual Fund to be very steady. Cavanal Hill Ultra secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.19, which signifies that the fund had a 0.19% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty technical indicators for Cavanal Hill Ultra, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please confirm Cavanal Hill's Mean Deviation of 0.0258, risk adjusted performance of 0.0189, and Standard Deviation of 0.056 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0112%. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.0071, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Cavanal Hill are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Cavanal Hill is likely to outperform the market.
Auto-correlation | 0.65 |
Good predictability
Cavanal Hill Ultra has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Cavanal Hill time series from 28th of August 2024 to 12th of October 2024 and 12th of October 2024 to 26th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Cavanal Hill Ultra price movement. The serial correlation of 0.65 indicates that roughly 65.0% of current Cavanal Hill price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.65 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.98 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Cavanal Hill Ultra lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Cavanal Hill mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Cavanal Hill's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Cavanal Hill returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Cavanal Hill has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Cavanal Hill regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Cavanal Hill mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Cavanal Hill mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Cavanal Hill mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Cavanal Hill Lagged Returns
When evaluating Cavanal Hill's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Cavanal Hill mutual fund have on its future price. Cavanal Hill autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Cavanal Hill autocorrelation shows the relationship between Cavanal Hill mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Cavanal Hill Ultra.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Cavanal Mutual Fund
Cavanal Hill financial ratios help investors to determine whether Cavanal Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Cavanal with respect to the benefits of owning Cavanal Hill security.
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