ARCHER DANIELS (Germany) Market Value
| ADM Stock | EUR 50.72 0.49 0.98% |
| Symbol | ARCHER |
ARCHER DANIELS 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to ARCHER DANIELS's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of ARCHER DANIELS.
| 10/26/2024 |
| 11/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in ARCHER DANIELS on October 26, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding ARCHER DANIELS MID or generate 0.0% return on investment in ARCHER DANIELS over 30 days. ARCHER DANIELS is related to or competes with FUTURE GAMING, GAMESTOP, Fast Retailing, International Game, Penn National, PENN NATL, and Qurate Retail. More
ARCHER DANIELS Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure ARCHER DANIELS's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess ARCHER DANIELS MID upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.09) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 10.94 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.47) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.74 |
ARCHER DANIELS Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for ARCHER DANIELS's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as ARCHER DANIELS's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use ARCHER DANIELS historical prices to predict the future ARCHER DANIELS's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.01) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.12) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.34) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.1) |
ARCHER DANIELS MID Backtested Returns
ARCHER DANIELS MID retains Efficiency (Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0387, which signifies that the company had a -0.0387% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. ARCHER DANIELS exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm ARCHER DANIELS's variance of 3.35, and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.09) to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm owns a Beta (Systematic Risk) of 0.53, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, ARCHER DANIELS's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding ARCHER DANIELS is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, ARCHER DANIELS MID has a negative expected return of -0.071%. Please make sure to confirm ARCHER DANIELS's market risk adjusted performance, coefficient of variation, information ratio, as well as the relationship between the mean deviation and standard deviation , to decide if ARCHER DANIELS MID performance from the past will be repeated in the future.
Auto-correlation | -0.62 |
Very good reverse predictability
ARCHER DANIELS MID has very good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between ARCHER DANIELS time series from 26th of October 2024 to 10th of November 2024 and 10th of November 2024 to 25th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of ARCHER DANIELS MID price movement. The serial correlation of -0.62 indicates that roughly 62.0% of current ARCHER DANIELS price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.62 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.86 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.94 |
ARCHER DANIELS MID lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is ARCHER DANIELS stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting ARCHER DANIELS's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of ARCHER DANIELS returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that ARCHER DANIELS has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
ARCHER DANIELS regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If ARCHER DANIELS stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if ARCHER DANIELS stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in ARCHER DANIELS stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
ARCHER DANIELS Lagged Returns
When evaluating ARCHER DANIELS's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of ARCHER DANIELS stock have on its future price. ARCHER DANIELS autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, ARCHER DANIELS autocorrelation shows the relationship between ARCHER DANIELS stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in ARCHER DANIELS MID.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in ARCHER Stock
ARCHER DANIELS financial ratios help investors to determine whether ARCHER Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in ARCHER with respect to the benefits of owning ARCHER DANIELS security.