AES (Germany) Market Value
| AES Stock | 12.46 0.03 0.24% |
| Symbol | AES |
AES 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to AES's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of AES.
| 10/27/2024 |
| 11/26/2024 |
AES Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure AES's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess The AES upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.18) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 19.62 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.87) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.44 |
AES Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for AES's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as AES's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use AES historical prices to predict the future AES's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.09) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.33) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.76) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.94 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AES's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
AES Backtested Returns
AES secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.11, which signifies that the company had a -0.11% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. The AES exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm AES's Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.09), mean deviation of 1.73, and Coefficient Of Variation of (765.37) to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.18, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning AES are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, AES is likely to outperform the market. At this point, AES has a negative expected return of -0.28%. Please make sure to confirm AES's potential upside, day median price, and the relationship between the treynor ratio and accumulation distribution , to decide if AES performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.64 |
Good predictability
The AES has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between AES time series from 27th of October 2024 to 11th of November 2024 and 11th of November 2024 to 26th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of AES price movement. The serial correlation of 0.64 indicates that roughly 64.0% of current AES price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.64 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.62 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.09 |
AES lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is AES stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting AES's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of AES returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that AES has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
AES regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If AES stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if AES stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in AES stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
AES Lagged Returns
When evaluating AES's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of AES stock have on its future price. AES autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, AES autocorrelation shows the relationship between AES stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in The AES.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Additional Tools for AES Stock Analysis
When running AES's price analysis, check to measure AES's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AES is operating at the current time. Most of AES's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AES's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AES's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AES to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.