Austral Gold (Australia) Market Value
| AGD Stock | 0.02 0 8.00% |
| Symbol | Austral |
Austral Gold 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Austral Gold's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Austral Gold.
| 02/27/2024 |
| 11/23/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Austral Gold on February 27, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Austral Gold or generate 0.0% return on investment in Austral Gold over 270 days. Austral Gold is related to or competes with Northern Star, Evolution Mining, Bluescope Steel, Sandfire Resources, Aneka Tambang, Perseus Mining, and De Grey. Austral Gold is entity of Australia. It is traded as Stock on AU exchange. More
Austral Gold Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Austral Gold's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Austral Gold upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 10.0 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1027 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 50.0 | |||
| Value At Risk | (8.33) | |||
| Potential Upside | 15.0 |
Austral Gold Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Austral Gold's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Austral Gold's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Austral Gold historical prices to predict the future Austral Gold's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1011 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.5759 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.29) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0774 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.3389 |
Austral Gold Backtested Returns
Austral Gold appears to be out of control, given 3 months investment horizon. Austral Gold secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.12, which signifies that the company had a 0.12% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By analyzing Austral Gold's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.92% is justified by implied risk. Please makes use of Austral Gold's Downside Deviation of 10.0, mean deviation of 3.86, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1011 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Austral Gold holds a performance score of 9. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 2.64, which signifies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Austral Gold will likely underperform. Please check Austral Gold's jensen alpha, sortino ratio, maximum drawdown, as well as the relationship between the total risk alpha and treynor ratio , to make a quick decision on whether Austral Gold's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.69 |
Very good reverse predictability
Austral Gold has very good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Austral Gold time series from 27th of February 2024 to 11th of July 2024 and 11th of July 2024 to 23rd of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Austral Gold price movement. The serial correlation of -0.69 indicates that around 69.0% of current Austral Gold price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.69 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.13 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Austral Gold lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Austral Gold stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Austral Gold's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Austral Gold returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Austral Gold has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Austral Gold regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Austral Gold stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Austral Gold stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Austral Gold stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Austral Gold Lagged Returns
When evaluating Austral Gold's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Austral Gold stock have on its future price. Austral Gold autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Austral Gold autocorrelation shows the relationship between Austral Gold stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Austral Gold.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Additional Tools for Austral Stock Analysis
When running Austral Gold's price analysis, check to measure Austral Gold's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Austral Gold is operating at the current time. Most of Austral Gold's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Austral Gold's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Austral Gold's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Austral Gold to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.