Agha Steel (Pakistan) Market Value

AGHA Stock   10.44  0.27  2.65%   
Agha Steel's market value is the price at which a share of Agha Steel trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Agha Steel Industries investors about its performance. Agha Steel is trading at 10.44 as of the 22nd of November 2024, a 2.65 percent up since the beginning of the trading day. The stock's open price was 10.17.
With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Agha Steel Industries and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Agha Steel over a given investment horizon. Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors.
Symbol

Agha Steel 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Agha Steel's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Agha Steel.
0.00
10/23/2024
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 31 days
11/22/2024
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Agha Steel on October 23, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Agha Steel Industries or generate 0.0% return on investment in Agha Steel over 30 days.

Agha Steel Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Agha Steel's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Agha Steel Industries upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

Agha Steel Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Agha Steel's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Agha Steel's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Agha Steel historical prices to predict the future Agha Steel's volatility.

Agha Steel Industries Backtested Returns

Agha Steel Industries secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0121, which signifies that the company had a -0.0121% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. Agha Steel Industries exposes twenty-nine different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Agha Steel's mean deviation of 3.26, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0739 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 1.15, which signifies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Agha Steel will likely underperform. At this point, Agha Steel Industries has a negative expected return of -0.0478%. Please make sure to confirm Agha Steel's coefficient of variation, jensen alpha, and the relationship between the downside deviation and standard deviation , to decide if Agha Steel Industries performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.

Auto-correlation

    
  -0.63  

Very good reverse predictability

Agha Steel Industries has very good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Agha Steel time series from 23rd of October 2024 to 7th of November 2024 and 7th of November 2024 to 22nd of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Agha Steel Industries price movement. The serial correlation of -0.63 indicates that roughly 63.0% of current Agha Steel price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient-0.63
Spearman Rank Test-0.24
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance0.91

Agha Steel Industries lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is Agha Steel stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Agha Steel's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Agha Steel returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Agha Steel has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
   Current and Lagged Values   
       Timeline  

Agha Steel regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Agha Steel stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Agha Steel stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Agha Steel stock over time.
   Current vs Lagged Prices   
       Timeline  

Agha Steel Lagged Returns

When evaluating Agha Steel's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Agha Steel stock have on its future price. Agha Steel autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Agha Steel autocorrelation shows the relationship between Agha Steel stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Agha Steel Industries.
   Regressed Prices   
       Timeline  

Pair Trading with Agha Steel

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Agha Steel position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Agha Steel will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Agha Steel could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Agha Steel when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Agha Steel - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Agha Steel Industries to buy it.
The correlation of Agha Steel is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Agha Steel moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Agha Steel Industries moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Agha Steel can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching