Agritech (Pakistan) Market Value
| AGL Stock | 39.58 0.42 1.05% |
| Symbol | Agritech |
Agritech 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Agritech's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Agritech.
| 10/27/2024 |
| 11/26/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Agritech on October 27, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Agritech or generate 0.0% return on investment in Agritech over 30 days. Agritech is related to or competes with Masood Textile, Fauji Foods, KSB Pumps, Mari Petroleum, Loads, Thatta Cement, and KOT Addu. More
Agritech Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Agritech's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Agritech upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.4 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1709 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 16.0 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.08) | |||
| Potential Upside | 9.12 |
Agritech Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Agritech's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Agritech's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Agritech historical prices to predict the future Agritech's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.168 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.6325 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1671 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.245 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.12 |
Agritech Backtested Returns
Agritech appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Agritech secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.11, which signifies that the company had a 0.11% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Agritech, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please makes use of Agritech's Mean Deviation of 2.48, downside deviation of 2.4, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.168 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Agritech holds a performance score of 8. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.64, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Agritech's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Agritech is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Agritech's value at risk, expected short fall, and the relationship between the treynor ratio and downside variance , to make a quick decision on whether Agritech's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.46 |
Modest reverse predictability
Agritech has modest reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Agritech time series from 27th of October 2024 to 11th of November 2024 and 11th of November 2024 to 26th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Agritech price movement. The serial correlation of -0.46 indicates that about 46.0% of current Agritech price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.46 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.24 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.1 |
Agritech lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Agritech stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Agritech's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Agritech returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Agritech has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Agritech regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Agritech stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Agritech stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Agritech stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Agritech Lagged Returns
When evaluating Agritech's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Agritech stock have on its future price. Agritech autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Agritech autocorrelation shows the relationship between Agritech stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Agritech.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Agritech
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Agritech position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Agritech will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Agritech Stock
| 0.83 | OGDC | Oil and Gas | PairCorr |
| 0.76 | PSO | Pakistan State Oil | PairCorr |
| 0.75 | PPL | Pakistan Petroleum | PairCorr |
| 0.69 | LUCK | Lucky Cement | PairCorr |
Moving against Agritech Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Agritech could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Agritech when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Agritech - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Agritech to buy it.
The correlation of Agritech is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Agritech moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Agritech moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Agritech can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Agritech Stock Analysis
When running Agritech's price analysis, check to measure Agritech's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Agritech is operating at the current time. Most of Agritech's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Agritech's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Agritech's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Agritech to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.