Arif Habib (Pakistan) Market Value
| AHCL Stock | 69.02 1.23 1.75% |
| Symbol | Arif |
Arif Habib 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Arif Habib's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Arif Habib.
| 10/29/2024 |
| 11/28/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Arif Habib on October 29, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Arif Habib or generate 0.0% return on investment in Arif Habib over 30 days. Arif Habib is related to or competes with Escorts Investment, Shaheen Insurance, Ittehad Chemicals, Askari General, Engro Polymer, and WorldCall Telecom. More
Arif Habib Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Arif Habib's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Arif Habib upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.11 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1718 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 13.17 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.16) | |||
| Potential Upside | 5.83 |
Arif Habib Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Arif Habib's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Arif Habib's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Arif Habib historical prices to predict the future Arif Habib's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1749 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.4297 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1719 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.2169 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.4625 |
Arif Habib Backtested Returns
Arif Habib appears to be not too volatile, given 3 months investment horizon. Arif Habib secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.19, which signifies that the company had a 0.19% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By analyzing Arif Habib's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.52% is justified by implied risk. Please makes use of Arif Habib's Downside Deviation of 2.11, risk adjusted performance of 0.1749, and Mean Deviation of 1.9 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Arif Habib holds a performance score of 15. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 1.24, which signifies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Arif Habib will likely underperform. Please check Arif Habib's information ratio, total risk alpha, and the relationship between the coefficient of variation and jensen alpha , to make a quick decision on whether Arif Habib's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.54 |
Modest predictability
Arif Habib has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Arif Habib time series from 29th of October 2024 to 13th of November 2024 and 13th of November 2024 to 28th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Arif Habib price movement. The serial correlation of 0.54 indicates that about 54.0% of current Arif Habib price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.54 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.41 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 19.33 |
Arif Habib lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Arif Habib stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Arif Habib's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Arif Habib returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Arif Habib has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Arif Habib regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Arif Habib stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Arif Habib stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Arif Habib stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Arif Habib Lagged Returns
When evaluating Arif Habib's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Arif Habib stock have on its future price. Arif Habib autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Arif Habib autocorrelation shows the relationship between Arif Habib stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Arif Habib.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Arif Habib
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Arif Habib position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Arif Habib will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Arif Stock
Moving against Arif Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Arif Habib could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Arif Habib when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Arif Habib - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Arif Habib to buy it.
The correlation of Arif Habib is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Arif Habib moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Arif Habib moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Arif Habib can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Other Information on Investing in Arif Stock
Arif Habib financial ratios help investors to determine whether Arif Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Arif with respect to the benefits of owning Arif Habib security.