Alfas Solar (Turkey) Market Value
| ALFAS Stock | 52.90 0.30 0.56% |
| Symbol | Alfas |
Alfas Solar 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Alfas Solar's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Alfas Solar.
| 11/30/2023 |
| 11/24/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Alfas Solar on November 30, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Alfas Solar Enerji or generate 0.0% return on investment in Alfas Solar over 360 days. Alfas Solar is related to or competes with Smart Gunes, Brisa Bridgestone, Dogus Gayrimenkul, Logo Yazilim, Ege Gubre, Prizma Pres, and Birlik Mensucat. More
Alfas Solar Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Alfas Solar's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Alfas Solar Enerji upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.10) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 14.84 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.63) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.44 |
Alfas Solar Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Alfas Solar's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Alfas Solar's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Alfas Solar historical prices to predict the future Alfas Solar's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.03) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.21) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.61) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.40) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alfas Solar's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Alfas Solar Enerji Backtested Returns
Alfas Solar Enerji secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0274, which signifies that the company had a -0.0274% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. Alfas Solar Enerji exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Alfas Solar's risk adjusted performance of (0.03), and Mean Deviation of 2.16 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.4, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Alfas Solar's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Alfas Solar is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Alfas Solar Enerji has a negative expected return of -0.0782%. Please make sure to confirm Alfas Solar's skewness, and the relationship between the total risk alpha and day median price , to decide if Alfas Solar Enerji performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.09 |
Virtually no predictability
Alfas Solar Enerji has virtually no predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Alfas Solar time series from 30th of November 2023 to 28th of May 2024 and 28th of May 2024 to 24th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Alfas Solar Enerji price movement. The serial correlation of 0.09 indicates that less than 9.0% of current Alfas Solar price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.09 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.22 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 58.5 |
Alfas Solar Enerji lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Alfas Solar stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Alfas Solar's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Alfas Solar returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Alfas Solar has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Alfas Solar regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Alfas Solar stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Alfas Solar stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Alfas Solar stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Alfas Solar Lagged Returns
When evaluating Alfas Solar's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Alfas Solar stock have on its future price. Alfas Solar autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Alfas Solar autocorrelation shows the relationship between Alfas Solar stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Alfas Solar Enerji.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Other Information on Investing in Alfas Stock
Alfas Solar financial ratios help investors to determine whether Alfas Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Alfas with respect to the benefits of owning Alfas Solar security.