Novacyt (France) Market Value
| ALNOV Stock | EUR 0.56 0.02 3.45% |
| Symbol | Novacyt |
Novacyt 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Novacyt's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Novacyt.
| 10/27/2024 |
| 11/26/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Novacyt on October 27, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Novacyt or generate 0.0% return on investment in Novacyt over 30 days. Novacyt is related to or competes with Biosynex, Biophytis, Eurobio Scientific, and Intrasense. Novacyt S.A. develops and sells diagnostic products for cancer and infectious diseases More
Novacyt Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Novacyt's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Novacyt upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.16) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 29.68 | |||
| Value At Risk | (8.45) | |||
| Potential Upside | 12.7 |
Novacyt Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Novacyt's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Novacyt's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Novacyt historical prices to predict the future Novacyt's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.1) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.80) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (1.61) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (3.64) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Novacyt's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Novacyt Backtested Returns
Novacyt has Sharpe Ratio of -0.14, which conveys that the firm had a -0.14% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Novacyt exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please verify Novacyt's Mean Deviation of 3.62, standard deviation of 5.41, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.1) to check out the risk estimate we provide. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.21, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Novacyt's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Novacyt is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Novacyt has a negative expected return of -0.77%. Please make sure to verify Novacyt's treynor ratio, accumulation distribution, as well as the relationship between the Accumulation Distribution and price action indicator , to decide if Novacyt performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.20 |
Weak predictability
Novacyt has weak predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Novacyt time series from 27th of October 2024 to 11th of November 2024 and 11th of November 2024 to 26th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Novacyt price movement. The serial correlation of 0.2 indicates that over 20.0% of current Novacyt price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.2 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.43 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Novacyt lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Novacyt stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Novacyt's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Novacyt returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Novacyt has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Novacyt regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Novacyt stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Novacyt stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Novacyt stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Novacyt Lagged Returns
When evaluating Novacyt's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Novacyt stock have on its future price. Novacyt autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Novacyt autocorrelation shows the relationship between Novacyt stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Novacyt.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for Novacyt Stock Analysis
When running Novacyt's price analysis, check to measure Novacyt's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Novacyt is operating at the current time. Most of Novacyt's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Novacyt's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Novacyt's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Novacyt to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.