Arwana Citramulia (Indonesia) Market Value
| ARNA Stock | IDR 740.00 5.00 0.67% |
| Symbol | Arwana |
Arwana Citramulia 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Arwana Citramulia's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Arwana Citramulia.
| 12/08/2022 |
| 11/27/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Arwana Citramulia on December 8, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Arwana Citramulia Tbk or generate 0.0% return on investment in Arwana Citramulia over 720 days. Arwana Citramulia is related to or competes with Asahimas Flat, Astra Graphia, Ekadharma International, Akasha Wira, and Asiaplast Industries. More
Arwana Citramulia Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Arwana Citramulia's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Arwana Citramulia Tbk upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.09 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.02) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 7.16 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.45) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.26 |
Arwana Citramulia Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Arwana Citramulia's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Arwana Citramulia's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Arwana Citramulia historical prices to predict the future Arwana Citramulia's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0646 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0872 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.12) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.02) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.02 |
Arwana Citramulia Tbk Backtested Returns
As of now, Arwana Stock is very steady. Arwana Citramulia Tbk secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0787, which signifies that the company had a 0.0787% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Arwana Citramulia Tbk, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm Arwana Citramulia's Downside Deviation of 1.09, mean deviation of 0.8902, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0646 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.11%. Arwana Citramulia has a performance score of 6 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.097, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Arwana Citramulia's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Arwana Citramulia is expected to be smaller as well. Arwana Citramulia Tbk right now shows a risk of 1.38%. Please confirm Arwana Citramulia Tbk maximum drawdown, potential upside, and the relationship between the treynor ratio and value at risk , to decide if Arwana Citramulia Tbk will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.67 |
Very good reverse predictability
Arwana Citramulia Tbk has very good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Arwana Citramulia time series from 8th of December 2022 to 3rd of December 2023 and 3rd of December 2023 to 27th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Arwana Citramulia Tbk price movement. The serial correlation of -0.67 indicates that around 67.0% of current Arwana Citramulia price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.67 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.63 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 2208.1 |
Arwana Citramulia Tbk lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Arwana Citramulia stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Arwana Citramulia's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Arwana Citramulia returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Arwana Citramulia has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Arwana Citramulia regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Arwana Citramulia stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Arwana Citramulia stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Arwana Citramulia stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Arwana Citramulia Lagged Returns
When evaluating Arwana Citramulia's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Arwana Citramulia stock have on its future price. Arwana Citramulia autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Arwana Citramulia autocorrelation shows the relationship between Arwana Citramulia stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Arwana Citramulia Tbk.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Arwana Citramulia financial ratios help investors to determine whether Arwana Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Arwana with respect to the benefits of owning Arwana Citramulia security.