Alphaville (Brazil) Market Value
| AVLL3 Stock | BRL 2.72 0.04 1.49% |
| Symbol | Alphaville |
Alphaville 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Alphaville's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Alphaville.
| 10/26/2024 |
| 11/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Alphaville on October 26, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Alphaville SA or generate 0.0% return on investment in Alphaville over 30 days. Alphaville is related to or competes with METISA Metalrgica, Southwest Airlines, Unity Software, Tres Tentos, American Airlines, Spotify Technology, and Waste Management. Alphaville S.A. holds interests in other companies, businesses, and investment funds More
Alphaville Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Alphaville's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Alphaville SA upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.39) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 9.11 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.18) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.39 |
Alphaville Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Alphaville's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Alphaville's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Alphaville historical prices to predict the future Alphaville's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.24) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.58) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.83) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (3.39) |
Alphaville SA Backtested Returns
Alphaville SA secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.34, which signifies that the company had a -0.34% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Alphaville SA exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Alphaville's Mean Deviation of 1.27, standard deviation of 1.74, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.24) to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.16, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Alphaville's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Alphaville is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Alphaville SA has a negative expected return of -0.6%. Please make sure to confirm Alphaville's maximum drawdown, potential upside, and the relationship between the treynor ratio and value at risk , to decide if Alphaville SA performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.82 |
Very good predictability
Alphaville SA has very good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Alphaville time series from 26th of October 2024 to 10th of November 2024 and 10th of November 2024 to 25th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Alphaville SA price movement. The serial correlation of 0.82 indicates that around 82.0% of current Alphaville price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.82 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.92 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.01 |
Alphaville SA lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Alphaville stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Alphaville's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Alphaville returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Alphaville has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Alphaville regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Alphaville stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Alphaville stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Alphaville stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Alphaville Lagged Returns
When evaluating Alphaville's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Alphaville stock have on its future price. Alphaville autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Alphaville autocorrelation shows the relationship between Alphaville stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Alphaville SA.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for Alphaville Stock Analysis
When running Alphaville's price analysis, check to measure Alphaville's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alphaville is operating at the current time. Most of Alphaville's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alphaville's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alphaville's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alphaville to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.