Bank Central (Indonesia) Market Value
| BBCA Stock | IDR 9,850 175.00 1.75% |
| Symbol | Bank |
Bank Central 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Bank Central's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Bank Central.
| 12/06/2022 |
| 11/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Bank Central on December 6, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Bank Central Asia or generate 0.0% return on investment in Bank Central over 720 days. Bank Central is related to or competes with Bank Rakyat, Bank Mandiri, Bank Negara, Astra International, and Telkom Indonesia. PT Bank Central Asia Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking products and services to individual, corporat... More
Bank Central Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Bank Central's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Bank Central Asia upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.16) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 5.64 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.72) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.71 |
Bank Central Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Bank Central's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Bank Central's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Bank Central historical prices to predict the future Bank Central's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.03) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.07) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.26) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (10.59) |
Bank Central Asia Backtested Returns
Bank Central Asia secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0328, which signifies that the company had a -0.0328% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Bank Central Asia exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Bank Central's Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.03), standard deviation of 1.2, and Mean Deviation of 0.985 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.0063, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Bank Central's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Bank Central is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Bank Central Asia has a negative expected return of -0.0396%. Please make sure to confirm Bank Central's maximum drawdown, potential upside, and the relationship between the treynor ratio and value at risk , to decide if Bank Central Asia performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.52 |
Modest predictability
Bank Central Asia has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Bank Central time series from 6th of December 2022 to 1st of December 2023 and 1st of December 2023 to 25th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Bank Central Asia price movement. The serial correlation of 0.52 indicates that about 52.0% of current Bank Central price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.52 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.56 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 271.7 K |
Bank Central Asia lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Bank Central stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Bank Central's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Bank Central returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Bank Central has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Bank Central regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Bank Central stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Bank Central stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Bank Central stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Bank Central Lagged Returns
When evaluating Bank Central's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Bank Central stock have on its future price. Bank Central autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Bank Central autocorrelation shows the relationship between Bank Central stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Bank Central Asia.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Bank Central financial ratios help investors to determine whether Bank Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Bank with respect to the benefits of owning Bank Central security.